Northwestern @ Ohio State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Northwestern

5-1 · Power #30

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Ohio State

6-1 · Power #2

projected

NU 7%

93% OSU

Spread

—

Total

—

model 54

Model line

OSU -21

OSU 93% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WWWLL	4-2	67%	1-1	—
OSU WLWLW	5-2	71%	2-2	—

Venue/role: NU away; OSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU OOOOU	5-1	83%	5-1
OSU OOUOU	4-3	57%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%
OSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northwestern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ MINN	W38–35LO
Nov 28	vs ILL	L13–20PU

Ohio State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ NEB	W21–17LU
Nov 28	vs MICH	W27–9WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NU 0–1 OSU OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Ohio State 31 @ Northwestern 7	OSU -29.5	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU+2.4 →+10.0▲ 7.6#30

OSU+27.1 →+25.8▼ 1.3#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

OSU

#21

Offense

Even

#14

#64

Defense

OSU better ▶

#10

+1.2 #7

Turnovers

◀ NU better

+0.3 #56

63 plays #102

Pace

OSU faster ▶

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Even matchup

	NU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #41	13.4 #6	OSU
Yards / play	6.70 #19	4.21 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #9	−0.05 #13	Even
Success rate	50% #13	35% #18	Even

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #12	17.0 #25	Even
Yards / play	6.95 #11	5.29 #61	OSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #21	+0.08 #67	OSU
Success rate	50% #10	44% #101	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	6.8 #59	9.2 #67	16.0 #59	8.7 #18	8.8 #34	17.5 #21
OSU allowed	2.3 #11	3.3 #11	5.6 #4	1.3 #5	6.6 #82	7.9 #23

OSU scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	12.3 #4	11.9 #25	24.1 #8	5.9 #76	9.3 #24	15.1 #39
NU allowed	1.5 #5	7.3 #74	8.8 #31	2.7 #24	5.5 #50	8.2 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.