Michigan @ Oregon: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Oregon · Conference game

Michigan

4-2 · Power #34

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Oregon

4-2 · Power #9

projected

MICH 17%

83% ORE

Spread

ORE -13.5

Total

53.5

model 47

Spread edge

ORE by 0.5

no lean

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentORE -13.5

Total53.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowORE -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 55% (159 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentORE -13.5

Total53.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 13.5-point home favorite against MICH, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.8 against an average line of 13.5; 47.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Very close	PSU vs WASH 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	35–6	W	U48
Very close	MISS vs SC 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13	30–14	W	U55.5
Very close	TEX vs FLA 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	24–27	L	U51.5
Very close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Very close	ALA vs AUB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	28–14	W	U51
Very close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Very close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-16	34–0	W	U51.5
Very close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	21–24	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH WWLLL	2-4	33%	0-1	1-0
ORE LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: MICH away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
ORE OOOUU	4-2	67%	4-2

In 1492 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
ORE	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs UCLA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ OSU	L9–27LU

Oregon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ MSU	W31–10LU
Nov 28	vs WASH	W26–14WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 0–1 ORE ORE leads · 1 game since 2023 · ORE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Oregon 38 @ Michigan 17	ORE -14.5	ORE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+14.6 →+8.8▼ 5.8#34

ORE+25.4 →+17.5▼ 7.9#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MICH

Longer bar = better

ORE

#97

Offense

ORE better ▶

#70

#10

Defense

◀ MICH better

#32

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

0.0 #75

58 plays #136

Pace

ORE faster ▶

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	MICH off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #106	20.7 #42	ORE
Yards / play	5.43 #106	4.95 #32	ORE
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	−0.01 #29	ORE
Success rate	42% #82	37% #26	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	ORE off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #23	16.2 #19	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #57	4.11 #1	MICH
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	−0.10 #6	MICH
Success rate	40% #102	35% #14	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.5 #112	6.2 #108	9.7 #120	7.5 #36	5.5 #110	13.0 #76
ORE allowed	2.2 #10	9.2 #105	11.3 #60	5.0 #72	4.3 #25	9.3 #42

ORE scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	7.3 #45	9.2 #67	16.5 #58	8.5 #20	12.0 #3	20.5 #6
MICH allowed	4.5 #62	1.7 #1	6.2 #9	1.7 #7	8.3 #117	10.0 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.