Florida @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Florida

4-2 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Texas

4-1 · Power #8

final

Closing spread

TEX -13.5

✓ FLA W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 20–34 TEX

✗ TEX (83%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTEX -9.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -9.5

4 → TEX

CloseTEX -13.5

4 pts toward Texas

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -9.5 · closed TEX -13.5 · moved 4 toward TEXmodel TEX -13

model TEX -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 56% (157 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (219 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTEX -9.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 13.5-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.8 against an average line of 14.4; 46.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	34–0	W	U51.5
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	31–9	W	U57.5
Close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Close	TEX vs CLEM 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-13.5	38–24	W	O49.5
Close	ALA vs LSU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-10	20–9	W	U49.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Close	UVA vs SYR 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	28–25	L	O49.5
Close	MIA vs NCSU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-16.5	41–7	W	U54.5
Close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-11	21–6	W	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—
TEX WLLLL	1-4	20%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2
TEX OUUUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
TEX	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FLA 2–3 TEX (1 tied) TEX leads · 6 games since 1924 · FLA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Texas 21 @ Florida 29	TEX -4.5	FLA W
Nov 9 2024	Florida 17 @ Texas 49	TEX -24.5	TEX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+10.9 →+13.5▲ 2.6#20

TEX+18.4 →+22.5▲ 4.1#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FLA

Longer bar = better

TEX

#20

Offense

◀ FLA better

#86

#101

Defense

TEX better ▶

#16

+0.2 #58

Turnovers

◀ FLA better

−0.4 #98

70 plays #34

Pace

Even

70 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Even matchup

	FLA off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	41.7 #12	16.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	6.79 #22	4.22 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #20	−0.04 #20	Even
Success rate	49% #24	34% #15	Even

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #59	29.0 #113	TEX
Yards / play	5.43 #103	5.64 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #109	+0.14 #96	Even
Success rate	43% #71	44% #104	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	9.0 #28	14.3 #14	23.3 #14	8.7 #26	9.7 #20	18.3 #16
TEX allowed	3.2 #31	4.8 #29	8.0 #18	3.2 #34	4.8 #37	8.0 #30

TEX scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	7.6 #47	8.0 #83	15.6 #64	5.4 #87	10.4 #12	15.8 #41
FLA allowed	2.7 #18	10.2 #118	12.8 #82	8.8 #127	7.3 #99	16.2 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.