Ole Miss @ Texas: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Texas · Conference game

Kickoff forecast79°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

5-1 · Power #12

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Texas

4-2 · Power #8

projected

MISS 40%

60% TEX

Spread

TEX -3

open TEX -9.5

Total

53.5

model 54

Spread edge

TEX by 3.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTEX -9.5

CurrentTEX -3

Total54.5 → 53.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenTEX -9.5

6.5 → MISS

NowTEX -3

6.5 pts toward Ole Miss

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Now53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened TEX -9.5 · now TEX -3.5 · moved 6 toward MISSmodel TEX -6.5

model TEX -6.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (317 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTEX -9.5

CurrentTEX -3

Total54.5 → 53.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:06

Ole Miss at Texas: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:25 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The market has moved toward Ole Miss. Here is why that matters. Ole Miss visits Texas, Saturday at 7:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Ole Miss is 12th and Texas is 8th. That’s about 3.5 points better than Ole Miss on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Ole Miss has held steady around 12th, while Texas has moved up from 11th to 8th. Kickoff forecast at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium: 78 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour. Texas is 1 and 5 against the spread as favorite. Texas is 1 and 5 against the spread this season. On offense, Ole Miss ranks 19th and Texas 90th. On defense, Texas ranks 16th and Ole Miss 91st. The model has Texas winning 29 to 25, a 62 percent chance. Texas is favored by 3.5, down from 9.5 at the open, through the key number 7, toward our model. The total opened at 54.5 and sits at 53.5. Our model makes it Texas by 6.5, with a total near 54. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MISS	TEX	Over	Under	MISS	TEX
BetMGMMGM	+3.5-115	-3.5-102	53.5-112	53.5-105	+135	-165
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3+100	-3-120	54-110	54-110	+142	-162
BetRiversBetRivers	+3.5-121	-3.5-104	54.5-110	54.5-113	+133	-167
BetUSBetUS	+3.5-120	-3.5+100	54-110	54-110	+138	-160
BovadaBovada	+3-105	-3-115	54-110	54-110	+135	-160
DraftKingsDK	+3-108	-3-112	53.5-115	53.5-105	+130	-155
FanDuelFD	+3.5-114	-3.5-106	53.5-115	53.5-105	+134	-162
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	54-110	54-110	+138	-170

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	MISS	TEX	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+2.5-108	-2.5-112	26.5-126	26.5+106
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-108	-2.5-112	27.5+100	27.5-120
FanDuelFD	+1.5-110	-1.5-110	26.5-128	26.5+104

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

MISS +3

TEX -3

Bets85% 15%

Money81% 19%

Winner

MISS

TEX

Bets62% 38%

Money82% 18%

Money is 20 pts ahead of bets on MISS

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 3-point home favorite against MISS, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 4.1; 52.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs WASH 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	24–7	W	U50.5
Close	TEX vs KSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.75	33–30	L	O49.25
Close	KSU vs KU 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	35–24	W	O55.5
Close	CLEM vs SMU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–35	L	O49.5
Close	MIZ vs AUB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	21–17	W	U49.5
Close	BYU vs TCU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-3	44–13	W	O51.5
Close	UTAH vs TCU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-3	7–13	L	U51.5
Close	SC vs UK 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	34–35	L	O52.5
Loose	CLEM vs UNC 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–20	W	U59.5
Loose	UGA vs MISS 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	43–35	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS LWLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
TEX LLLLL	1-5	17%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: MISS away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1
TEX UUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2

In 1492 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
TEX	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Ole Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs AUB	W28–21WU
Nov 7	vs UGA	W39–34WO
Nov 14	@ OU	W34–26WO

Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs MSST	W45–38LO
Nov 7	@ MIZ	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ LSU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

MISS 2–6 TEX TEX leads · 8 games since 1912 · MISS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+18.8 →+17.3▼ 1.5#12

TEX+18.4 →+21.0▲ 2.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MISS

Longer bar = better

TEX

#19

Offense

◀ MISS better

#90

#91

Defense

TEX better ▶

#16

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

−0.5 #105

68 plays #52

Pace

◀ MISS faster

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #19	17.8 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #32	4.15 #2	TEX
PPA / play	+0.31 #16	−0.01 #25	Even
Success rate	51% #8	34% #10	Even

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #64	23.8 #71	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #105	5.58 #79	MISS
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	+0.17 #109	Even
Success rate	43% #76	44% #104	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	6.3 #65	15.3 #3	21.7 #14	4.8 #103	11.0 #7	15.8 #36
TEX allowed	2.7 #16	5.7 #37	8.3 #27	3.8 #41	5.7 #57	9.5 #45

TEX scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.0 #35	7.8 #90	15.8 #65	4.5 #107	9.8 #17	14.3 #52
MISS allowed	3.2 #33	2.8 #7	6.0 #7	9.8 #136	8.0 #109	17.8 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.