Texas A&M @ Alabama: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Alabama · Conference game

Kickoff forecast77°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

4-3 · Power #24

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Alabama

5-2 · Power #5

projected

TA&M 16%

84% ALA

Spread

ALA -13.5

earliest ALA -2.5

Total

50.5

model 47.5

Spread edge

ALA by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenALA -2.5

CurrentALA -13.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenALA -2.5

11 → ALA

NowALA -13.5

11 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Now50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened ALA -2.5 · now ALA -13.5 · moved 11 toward ALAmodel ALA -15

model ALA -15

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: ALA by 12.7 pts (open -2.5, now -13.5). In 2025–2026, with a 8+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 82% of the 50 games where the line moved (53 at that gap), but those sides covered 68.6% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even by a statistically reliable margin.

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 55% (159 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenALA -2.5

CurrentALA -13.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:10

Texas A&M at Alabama: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:46 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved 11 points toward Alabama since it opened. Texas A&M heads to Alabama for a Saturday kickoff at 3:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Alabama sits 5th, Texas A&M 24th. That’s about 11.5 points better than Texas A&M on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Texas A&M has slipped from 8th to 24th, while Alabama has held steady around 5th. Kickoff forecast at Bryant-Denny Stadium: 77 degrees, dry, wind 8 miles per hour. Against the spread, Texas A&M is 3 and 4 and Alabama is 4 and 3. On offense, Alabama ranks 23rd and Texas A&M 86th. The defenses are close: 45th and 43rd. Texas A&M plays at the faster pace. Our model projects Alabama 31, Texas A&M 17, with a 84 percent win chance. Alabama is favored by 13.5, up from 2.5 at the open, through the key number 3, toward our model. The total opened at 54.5 and sits at 50.5. Our model makes it Alabama by 15, with a total near 48. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	TA&M	ALA	Over	Under	TA&M	ALA
BetMGMMGM	+13-108	-13-110	50.5-108	50.5-110	+450	-600
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+13.5-115	-13.5-105	50.5-110	50.5-110	+425	-565
BetRiversBetRivers	+13.5-108	-13.5-115	49.5-113	49.5-110	+410	-590
BetUSBetUS	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	+435	-565
BovadaBovada	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	50.5-105	50.5-115	+425	-600
DraftKingsDK	+13.5-112	-13.5-108	50.5-108	50.5-112	+425	-575
FanDuelFD	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	50.5-106	50.5-114	+440	-610
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+13.5-111	-13.5-101	50.5-108	50.5-108	+425	-565
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+14-110	-14-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	+440	-625

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	TA&M	ALA	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+7.5-117	-7.5-103	26.5-115	26.5-105
DraftKingsDK	+7.5-118	-7.5-102	25.5-110	25.5-110
FanDuelFD	+8.5-114	-8.5-106	26.5-114	26.5-106

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

TA&M +13.5

ALA -13.5

Bets53% 47%

Money67% 33%

Money is 14 pts ahead of bets on TA&M +13.5

Winner

TA&M

ALA

Bets3% 97%

Money14% 86%

Money is 11 pts ahead of bets on TA&M

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like ALA as a 13.5-point home favorite against TA&M, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.5 against an average line of 13.5; 57.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OSU vs PSU 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-17.5	38–14	W	O45.5
Loose	WASH vs UTAH 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-9.5	35–28	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LLWLL	3-4	43%	0-2	0-2
ALA LWWLL	4-3	57%	2-2	4-3

Venue/role: TA&M away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OUUUU	2-5	29%	4-3
ALA OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2

In 1518 games with totals 46.5–54.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
ALA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ SC	W31–30LO
Nov 14	vs TENN	L13–20LU
Nov 21	@ OU	No meeting since 2023

Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ LSU	W20–9WU
Nov 14	@ VAN	W30–14WU
Nov 21	vs UTC	W66–10WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TA&M 3–13 ALA ALA leads · 16 games since 1941 · ALA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Alabama 26 @ Texas A&M 20	ALA -1.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+19.7 →+12.1▼ 7.6#24

ALA+20.3 →+23.6▲ 3.3#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TA&M

Longer bar = better

ALA

#86

Offense

ALA better ▶

#23

#45

Defense

Even

#43

+0.1 #67

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+0.7 #24

68 plays #54

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

63 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	TA&M off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #70	21.4 #48	ALA
Yards / play	5.11 #118	5.31 #62	ALA
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	−0.01 #28	ALA
Success rate	43% #68	38% #35	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #14	17.1 #26	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #24	5.41 #68	ALA
PPA / play	+0.26 #22	+0.02 #39	Even
Success rate	48% #32	39% #46	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	5.7 #81	8.7 #76	14.4 #80	5.3 #90	9.7 #18	15.0 #40
ALA allowed	5.7 #93	7.7 #73	13.4 #90	4.3 #54	3.7 #16	8.0 #24

ALA scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	6.9 #55	16.6 #2	23.4 #11	7.0 #43	8.9 #33	15.9 #35
TA&M allowed	3.0 #30	3.9 #18	6.9 #11	8.9 #129	1.4 #1	10.3 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.