Alabama @ LSU: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at LSU · Conference game

Kickoff forecast65°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Alabama

5-2 · Power #5

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

LSU

5-2 · Power #6

projected

ALA 41%

59% LSU

Spread

LSU -3.5

Total

54.5

model 52

Spread edge

ALA by 2

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLSU -3.5

Total54.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLSU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now54.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (377 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLSU -3.5

Total54.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against ALA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 3.1; 48.8 points a game (usually 52.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs ALA 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	21–24	L	U53.5
Close	TA&M vs MIA 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-3	3–10	L	U48.5
Close	TENN vs TA&M 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3	20–13	W	U54.5
Close	USC vs MICH 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	31–13	W	U58
Close	VAN vs MIZ 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3	17–10	W	U52.5
Close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Close	TEX vs KSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.75	33–30	L	O49.25
Close	ALA vs LSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	42–28	W	O60.5
Close	TENN vs OU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–33	L	O55.5
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA LWWLL	4-3	57%	2-1	—
LSU LWLLW	3-4	43%	3-2	3-4

Venue/role: ALA away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2
LSU UUOOU	4-3	57%	5-2

In 1469 games with totals 50.5–58.5, 50% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
LSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ VAN	W30–14WU
Nov 21	vs UTC	W66–10WO
Nov 28	vs AUB	W27–20PU

LSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs TEX	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	@ TENN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ ARK	W23–22LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ALA 3–0 LSU ALA leads · 3 games since 2023 · ALA has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	LSU 9 @ Alabama 20	ALA -10.5	ALA W
Nov 9 2024	Alabama 42 @ LSU 13	ALA -2.5	ALA W
Nov 4 2023	LSU 28 @ Alabama 42	ALA -3	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.3 →+23.7▲ 3.4#4

LSU+12.7 →+22.8▲ 10.1#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ALA

Longer bar = better

LSU

#23

Offense

Even

#20

#43

Defense

LSU better ▶

+0.7 #24

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

−0.3 #95

63 plays #105

Pace

LSU faster ▶

79 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #14	15.9 #17	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #24	4.28 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #22	−0.09 #8	Even
Success rate	48% #32	32% #2	LSU

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	40.4 #7	21.4 #48	LSU
Yards / play	6.36 #43	5.31 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #25	−0.01 #28	Even
Success rate	52% #4	38% #35	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	6.9 #55	16.6 #2	23.4 #11	7.0 #43	8.9 #33	15.9 #35
LSU allowed	2.9 #23	5.4 #34	8.3 #25	2.4 #21	4.0 #18	6.4 #8

LSU scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	10.3 #16	9.0 #72	19.3 #30	12.7 #1	7.4 #58	20.1 #8
ALA allowed	5.7 #93	7.7 #73	13.4 #90	4.3 #54	3.7 #16	8.0 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.