Arkansas @ Auburn: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Auburn · Conference game

Kickoff forecast57°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

3-4 · Power #57

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Auburn

4-2 · Power #25

projected

ARK 18%

82% AUB

Spread

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Total

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model 50.5

Model line

AUB -12.5

AUB 82% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LWLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	—
AUB WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: ARK away; AUB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK OUUUO	2-5	29%	3-4
AUB UOUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
AUB	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arkansas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs SC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	@ TEX	L37–52LO
Nov 28	vs LSU	L22–23WU

Auburn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ MSST	W27–13WP
Nov 21	vs SAM	W45–13LU
Nov 28	@ ALA	L20–27PU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ARK 1–2 AUB AUB leads · 3 games since 2023 · AUB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Auburn 33 @ Arkansas 24	ARK -2.5	AUB W
Sep 21 2024	Arkansas 24 @ Auburn 14	AUB -2.5	ARK W
Nov 11 2023	Auburn 48 @ Arkansas 10	ARK -2.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+7.3 →+2.6▼ 4.7#58

AUB+11.9 →+11.8▼ 0.1#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ARK

Longer bar = better

AUB

#102

Offense

Even

#91

#103

Defense

AUB better ▶

#52

+0.1 #65

Turnovers

AUB better ▶

+0.3 #50

69 plays #45

Pace

AUB faster ▶

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	ARK off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #115	21.8 #55	AUB
Yards / play	4.99 #121	5.06 #45	AUB
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.03 #43	AUB
Success rate	43% #67	41% #64	Even

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #84	26.7 #96	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #91	6.02 #110	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	+0.20 #113	AUB
Success rate	41% #95	43% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	3.9 #104	4.3 #131	8.1 #127	6.0 #70	6.9 #69	12.9 #77
AUB allowed	4.0 #46	5.2 #29	9.2 #35	5.7 #85	7.0 #89	12.7 #91

AUB scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.2 #71	9.2 #67	15.3 #66	6.2 #68	5.3 #112	11.5 #91
ARK allowed	5.0 #75	8.6 #94	13.6 #93	6.7 #102	6.4 #77	13.1 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.