Georgia @ Ole Miss: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Georgia

6-1 · Power #4

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Ole Miss

5-1 · Power #12

projected

UGA 62%

38% MISS

Spread

UGA -4.5

Total

55.5

model 60

Spread edge

MISS by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentUGA -4.5

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowUGA -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now55.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (178 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentUGA -4.5

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 4.5-point road favorite at MISS, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.8 against an average line of 4.7; 49.2 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU @ USC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	33–30	L	O52
Very close	ORE @ WASH 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	26–14	W	U51.5
Very close	TA&M @ TEX 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	17–27	L	U54.5
Very close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	FLA @ MIZ 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	17–45	L	O57.5
Very close	ND @ USC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	49–35	W	O52.5
Very close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-6	20–33	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA WWLWL	5-2	71%	2-0	4-2
MISS LWLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; MISS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA OOOUO	6-1	86%	6-1
MISS UUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1

In 1387 games with totals 51.5–59.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
MISS	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs MIZ	W30–21LU
Nov 21	@ SC	W24–14LU
Nov 28	vs GT	W16–9LU

Ole Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ OU	W34–26WO
Nov 21	vs WOF	No meeting since 2023
Nov 27	vs MSST	W38–19WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

UGA 34–15 MISS (1 tied) UGA leads · 50 games since 1940 · MISS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 1 2025	Ole Miss 39 @ Georgia 34	UGA -6	MISS W
Oct 18 2025	Ole Miss 35 @ Georgia 43	UGA -7.5	UGA W
Nov 9 2024	Georgia 10 @ Ole Miss 28	UGA -1.5	MISS W
Nov 11 2023	Ole Miss 17 @ Georgia 52	UGA -11	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+22.1 →+23.6▲ 1.5#5

MISS+18.8 →+17.3▼ 1.5#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UGA

Longer bar = better

MISS

Offense

◀ UGA better

#19

#18

Defense

◀ UGA better

#91

+0.4 #47

Turnovers

◀ UGA better

−0.2 #87

61 plays #119

Pace

MISS faster ▶

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	43.0 #2	23.8 #71	UGA
Yards / play	7.68 #2	5.58 #80	UGA
PPA / play	+0.33 #12	+0.17 #109	UGA
Success rate	53% #3	44% #104	UGA

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #19	15.9 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #32	4.32 #7	UGA
PPA / play	+0.31 #16	0.00 #34	Even
Success rate	51% #8	35% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	12.4 #3	13.0 #16	25.4 #4	7.9 #28	9.7 #18	17.6 #20
MISS allowed	3.2 #33	2.8 #6	6.0 #7	9.8 #136	8.0 #109	17.8 #130

MISS scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	6.3 #65	15.3 #3	21.7 #14	4.8 #103	11.0 #7	15.8 #36
UGA allowed	2.0 #8	6.1 #50	8.1 #22	2.3 #16	5.4 #48	7.7 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.