Ole Miss @ Oklahoma: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Ole Miss

5-1 · Power #12

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Oklahoma

3-3 · Power #22

projected

MISS 42%

58% OU

Spread

OU -4

Total

53.5

model 50

Spread edge

MISS by 6.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentOU -4

Total53.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowOU -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now53.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (252 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentOU -4

Total53.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 4-point home favorite against MISS, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 3; 51.9 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs LSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	38–23	W	O54.5
Very close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	27–24	P	U54.5
Very close	MICH vs WASH 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	24–7	W	U50.5
Very close	CLEM vs FSU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	24–10	W	U56.5
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	ISU vs KU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	21–28	L	U53.5
Very close	OU vs MISS 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	26–34	L	O52.5
Very close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	28–21	W	U51
Close	TEX vs VAN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–31	L	O48.5
Close	SC vs UK 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–35	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS LWLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
OU LLLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: MISS away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1
OU UUOOU	2-4	33%	3-3

In 1493 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
OU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Ole Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs WOF	No meeting since 2023
Nov 27	vs MSST	W38–19WU

Oklahoma

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs TA&M	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ MIZ	W17–6WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MISS 2–0 OU MISS leads · 2 games since 2023 · MISS has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Ole Miss 34 @ Oklahoma 26	OU -5.5	MISS W
Oct 26 2024	Oklahoma 14 @ Ole Miss 26	MISS -19.5	OU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+18.8 →+17.3▼ 1.5#12

OU+15.2 →+12.0▼ 3.2#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MISS

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

◀ MISS better

#123

#91

Defense

OU better ▶

#14

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

−1.3 #135

68 plays #51

Pace

◀ MISS faster

63 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #19	18.2 #29	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #32	4.59 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #16	−0.11 #5	Even
Success rate	51% #8	33% #3	Even

When OU has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	OU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #112	23.8 #71	MISS
Yards / play	4.97 #123	5.58 #80	MISS
PPA / play	−0.06 #133	+0.17 #109	MISS
Success rate	38% #125	44% #104	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	6.3 #65	15.3 #3	21.7 #14	4.8 #103	11.0 #7	15.8 #36
OU allowed	4.7 #68	6.7 #62	11.3 #60	0.5 #1	6.3 #72	6.8 #12

OU scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	4.0 #98	4.5 #128	8.5 #125	7.2 #39	5.7 #103	12.8 #78
MISS allowed	3.2 #33	2.8 #6	6.0 #7	9.8 #136	8.0 #109	17.8 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.