Tennessee @ Texas A&M: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Tennessee

6-1 · Power #11

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Texas A&M

4-3 · Power #24

projected

TENN 33%

67% TA&M

Spread

TA&M -8.5

Total

55.5

model 49.5

Spread edge

TENN by 11.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTA&M -8.5

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowTA&M -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now55.5

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 52% (192 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTA&M -8.5

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as an 8.5-point home favorite against TENN, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.1 against an average line of 7.5; 50.1 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs MISS 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	43–35	W	O56.5
Close	CLEM vs UNC 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–20	W	U59.5
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	27–10	W	U51
Close	AUB vs VAN 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-10	21–15	L	U54.5
Close	TCU vs ISU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	17–20	L	U58.5
Close	OU vs MISS 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	26–34	L	O52.5
Close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	42–20	W	O58
Close	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Close	LSU vs TA&M 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	35–6	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LWWLW	4-3	57%	1-1	2-0
TA&M LLWLL	3-4	43%	3-2	3-2

Venue/role: TENN away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN UUUUU	1-6	14%	6-1
TA&M OUUUU	2-5	29%	4-3

In 1387 games with totals 51.5–59.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
TA&M	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs LSU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ VAN	L24–45LO

Texas A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ OU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 27	vs TEX	L17–27LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TENN 1–0 TA&M TENN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TENN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Texas A&M 13 @ Tennessee 20	TENN -3.5	TENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+14.3 →+17.6▲ 3.3#10

TA&M+19.7 →+11.6▼ 8.1#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TENN

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#61

Offense

◀ TENN better

#85

#15

Defense

◀ TENN better

#45

+0.4 #42

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

+0.1 #67

69 plays #37

Pace

◀ TENN faster

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #42	17.1 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.84 #69	5.41 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	+0.02 #39	TA&M
Success rate	43% #65	39% #46	Even

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	TA&M off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #69	14.7 #11	TENN
Yards / play	5.11 #118	4.58 #14	TENN
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	−0.14 #4	TENN
Success rate	43% #68	37% #29	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	5.9 #76	8.1 #85	14.0 #83	10.4 #11	9.0 #29	19.4 #9
TA&M allowed	3.0 #29	3.9 #17	6.9 #11	8.9 #129	1.4 #1	10.3 #54

TA&M scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	5.7 #81	8.7 #76	14.4 #80	5.3 #89	9.7 #18	15.0 #40
TENN allowed	2.9 #22	2.9 #9	5.7 #5	3.9 #45	5.1 #44	9.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.