Vanderbilt @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

3-0 · Power #60

final

Final

Auburn

2-1 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

AUB -10

✓ VAN W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 23–32 AUB

✓ AUB (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAUB -8.5

CloseAUB -10

Total50.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -8.5

1.5 → AUB

CloseAUB -10

1.5 pts toward Auburn

Total

Open50.5

▲ 4

Close54.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -8.5 · closed AUB -10 · moved 1.5 toward AUBmodel AUB -5.5

model AUB -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 78%, covered 44% (144 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (321 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAUB -8.5

CloseAUB -10

Total50.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 10-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 21–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 8.2; 50.2 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC vs DUKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	47–45	L	O53
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	42–20	W	O58
Close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-11	21–6	W	U52
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Close	UNC vs MINN 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	31–13	W	U51.5
Close	CAL vs SYR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	25–33	L	O57.5
Close	TCU vs ISU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	17–20	L	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN LLW	1-2	33%	—	—
AUB LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
AUB UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
AUB	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

VAN 2–1 AUB VAN leads · 3 games since 2023 · VAN has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Auburn 38 @ Vanderbilt 45	VAN -5.5	VAN W
Nov 2 2024	Vanderbilt 17 @ Auburn 7	AUB -7.5	VAN W
Nov 4 2023	Auburn 31 @ Vanderbilt 15	AUB -12.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+13.0 →+7.7▼ 5.3#37

AUB+11.9 →+10.4▼ 1.5#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

VAN

Longer bar = better

AUB

#70

Offense

Even

#71

#48

Defense

◀ VAN better

#63

+0.3 #52

Turnovers

◀ VAN better

0.0 #78

63 plays #97

Pace

AUB faster ▶

76 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #62	22.7 #71	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #75	4.94 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #67	+0.06 #72	Even
Success rate	44% #74	38% #53	AUB

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: VAN defense

	AUB off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #61	22.0 #68	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #72	4.98 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #83	−0.06 #28	VAN
Success rate	44% #67	35% #34	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.3 #75	5.7 #111	12.0 #100	11.3 #13	9.3 #32	20.7 #18
AUB allowed	2.3 #24	9.3 #101	11.7 #73	4.7 #72	6.3 #78	11.0 #76

AUB scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	7.7 #57	10.3 #58	18.0 #55	7.7 #54	7.3 #69	15.0 #58
VAN allowed	6.7 #103	7.7 #76	14.3 #99	2.3 #25	5.3 #59	7.7 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.