Florida @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida

2-0 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

2-0 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

FLA -2.5

✓ FLA W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 26–25 AUB

✓ FLA (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseFLA -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPick’em

2.5 → FLA

CloseFLA -2.5

2.5 pts toward Florida

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened Pick’em · closed FLA -2.5 · moved 2.5 toward FLAmodel AUB -3

model AUB -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (256 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (312 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseFLA -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 2.5-point road favorite at AUB, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 44–39; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 53.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 4; 61.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ILL @ DUKE 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	45–19	W	O49.25
Close	SYR @ PUR 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-1	35–20	W	U56.5
Close	IU @ UCLA 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	42–13	W	O46.5
Close	OSU @ ORE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–32	L	O54.5
Loose	MICH @ PSU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4.5	24–15	W	U44.5
Loose	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Loose	KSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–30	L	O48.5
Loose	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Loose	TEX @ MICH 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	31–12	W	O42
Loose	MIA @ LOU 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	52–45	W	O61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
AUB LW	1-1	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: FLA away, as favorite; AUB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OU	1-1	50%	2-0
AUB UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 675 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
AUB	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+10.9 →+12.8▲ 1.9#20

AUB+11.9 →+12.7▲ 0.8#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

FLA

Longer bar = better

AUB

Offense

◀ FLA better

#72

#26

Defense

Even

#39

+1.0 #25

Turnovers

◀ FLA better

0.0 #79

65 plays #87

Pace

AUB faster ▶

81 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	59.0 #2	12.0 #25	FLA
Yards / play	8.82 #4	4.18 #30	FLA
PPA / play	+0.60 #3	−0.07 #39	FLA
Success rate	63% #2	38% #60	FLA

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: FLA defense

	AUB off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #75	12.0 #23	FLA
Yards / play	6.22 #63	3.96 #24	FLA
PPA / play	+0.13 #80	−0.19 #13	FLA
Success rate	45% #68	35% #45	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	13.5	28.0	41.5	10.5	7.0	17.5
AUB allowed	0.0	7.5	7.5	0.0	4.5	4.5

AUB scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	10.0	8.5	18.5	8.0	3.5	11.5
FLA allowed	1.5	7.0	8.5	3.5	0.0	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.