Mississippi State @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 5:35 PM EDTWeek 3 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

2-0 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

South Carolina

2-0 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

SC -3

✓ MSST W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 27–30 SC

✗ SC (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSC -7.5

CloseSC -3

Total54.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSC -7.5

4.5 → MSST

CloseSC -3

4.5 pts toward Mississippi State

Total

Open54.5

▲ 5

Close59.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SC -7.5 · closed SC -3 · moved 4.5 toward MSSTmodel SC -2

model SC -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (279 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (105 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSC -7.5

CloseSC -3

Total54.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like SC as a 3-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 41–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 2 similar games. 75 points went over 59.5, as in 0 of 2.

Favorite won

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 24 against an average line of 3.3; 41 points a game (usually 52.6). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UTAH vs TTU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–34	L	U58.5
Loose	SC vs VAN 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	7–31	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—
SC WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST OU	1-1	50%	2-0
SC OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 398 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SC	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSST 0–1 SC SC leads · 1 game since 2023 · SC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Mississippi State 30 @ South Carolina 37	SC -6	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+5.6 →+11.3▲ 5.7#27

SC+9.4 →+10.4▲ 1.0#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MSST

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#16

#31

Defense

SC better ▶

#16

−0.5 #102

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #106

74 plays #22

Pace

◀ MSST faster

70 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	50.0 #15	4.5 #2	Even
Yards / play	8.44 #6	3.44 #7	Even
PPA / play	+0.59 #4	−0.05 #44	MSST
Success rate	62% #3	28% #11	Even

When SC has the ball

Even matchup

	SC off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	51.0 #12	13.0 #31	Even
Yards / play	8.25 #9	4.35 #38	SC
PPA / play	+0.33 #25	−0.17 #15	Even
Success rate	54% #17	34% #38	SC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 73 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	17.5	17.0	34.5	5.0	10.5	15.5
SC allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	3.0	0.0	3.0

SC scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	7.0	16.0	23.0	14.0	14.0	28.0
MSST allowed	1.5	3.0	4.5	8.5	0.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.