South Carolina @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:10 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

2-1 · Power #28

final

Final

Alabama

3-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -12.5

✓ ALA W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 20–34 ALA

✓ ALA (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -11.5

CloseALA -12.5

Total46.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -11.5

1 → ALA

CloseALA -12.5

1 pt toward Alabama

Total

Open46.5

▲ 7

Close53.5

Up 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -11.5 · closed ALA -12.5 · moved 1 toward ALAmodel ALA -18

model ALA -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 56% (118 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (325 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -11.5

CloseALA -12.5

Total46.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 12.5-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 49–18; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 11.9; 56.9 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ALA vs VAN 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13.5	30–14	W	U57.5
Loose	MIZ vs SC 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-10	29–20	L	O48.5
Loose	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Loose	WASH vs RUTG 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-9.5	38–19	W	U62.5
Loose	ND vs USC 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10.5	34–24	L	U60.5
Loose	ISU vs UCF 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	38–35	L	O49.5
Loose	PSU vs WASH 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13.5	35–6	W	U48
Loose	UTAH vs CIN 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-11	45–14	W	O57.5
Loose	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Loose	ORE vs USC 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-11	42–27	W	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WLL	1-2	33%	—	—
ALA WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
ALA OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 701 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ALA	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SC 3–16 ALA ALA leads · 19 games since 1937 · ALA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	Alabama 29 @ South Carolina 22	ALA -12.5	SC W
Oct 12 2024	South Carolina 25 @ Alabama 27	ALA -19.5	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+9.4 →+9.7▲ 0.3#31

ALA+20.3 →+23.2▲ 2.9#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

ALA

#32

Offense

Even

#25

#45

Defense

Even

#42

−0.7 #116

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+1.0 #32

73 plays #22

Pace

◀ SC faster

70 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Even matchup

	SC off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	45.3 #16	21.0 #63	SC
Yards / play	7.24 #18	4.98 #59	SC
PPA / play	+0.24 #47	−0.10 #19	ALA
Success rate	47% #47	34% #28	Even

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	47.7 #8	16.7 #37	ALA
Yards / play	6.68 #39	4.51 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #24	+0.09 #82	ALA
Success rate	50% #30	34% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

SC scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	9.0 #39	14.0 #21	23.0 #22	9.3 #26	13.0 #5	22.3 #9
ALA allowed	7.0 #109	8.0 #83	15.0 #102	3.3 #41	2.7 #16	6.0 #17

ALA scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	6.7 #69	19.0 #3	25.7 #15	10.7 #13	11.3 #11	22.0 #11
SC allowed	0.0 #1	5.7 #46	5.7 #13	7.7 #120	3.3 #21	11.0 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.