Liberty @ Coastal Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Thu, Sep 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Coastal Carolina

Weather at kickoff63°F7 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Liberty

2-1 · Power #67

▲ winner

Final

Coastal Carolina

1-2 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

LIB -2.5

✓ LIB W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 27–24 CCU

✓ LIB (57%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCCU -1.5

CloseLIB -2.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCCU -1.5

4 → LIB

CloseLIB -2.5

4 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Close50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CCU -1.5 · closed LIB -2.5 · moved 4 toward LIBmodel LIB -3

model LIB -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (261 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (203 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCCU -1.5

CloseLIB -2.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 2.5-point road favorite at CCU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 34–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 2.7; 49 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GASO @ ODU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	19–47	L	O51.5
Close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & rest	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	TXST @ CCU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.75	23–31	L	U55.5
Close	CONN @ USM 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	48–20	W	O54.5
Close	JXST @ NMSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-0.25	17–20	L	U48.5
Close	UNM @ AFA 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	20–3	W	U53.5
Close	UVA @ CCU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	43–24	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
CCU WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; CCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
CCU OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 739 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
CCU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−8.8 →−4.4▲ 4.4#83

CCU−12.9 →−9.6▲ 3.3#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

LIB

Longer bar = better

CCU

#85

Offense

CCU better ▶

#58

#53

Defense

◀ LIB better

#79

+0.3 #58

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #65

65 plays #85

Pace

Even

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #83	20.0 #60	CCU
Yards / play	5.95 #80	5.33 #81	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.07 #74	CCU
Success rate	43% #82	43% #100	Even

When CCU has the ball

Even matchup

	CCU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #89	19.3 #55	LIB
Yards / play	6.55 #44	4.86 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #49	+0.05 #64	Even
Success rate	46% #50	36% #38	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	9.0 #41	6.3 #102	15.3 #79	4.7 #86	9.3 #27	14.0 #64
CCU allowed	4.7 #71	10.7 #114	15.3 #100	0.0 #1	4.7 #47	4.7 #14

CCU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	4.7 #90	9.3 #68	14.0 #91	5.7 #77	8.0 #51	13.7 #66
LIB allowed	6.7 #100	8.0 #80	14.7 #95	4.7 #64	0.0 #1	4.7 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.