Northern Illinois @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Georgia State

Weather at kickoff79°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

0-3 · Power #134

final

Final

Georgia State

2-1 · Power #92

▲ winner

Closing spread

GAST -8.5

✓ GAST W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 22–32 GAST

✓ GAST (75%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGAST -8.5

CloseGAST -8.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGAST -8.5

no move

CloseGAST -8.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▲ 2

Close56.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GAST -8.5 · unchangedmodel GAST -13.5

model GAST -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 51% (180 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenGAST -8.5

CloseGAST -8.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as an 8.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: GAST won 35–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 10; 58.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-13	24–14	L	U53
Close	UL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	45–38	L	O57.5
Close	WKU vs FIU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-10	6–25	L	U55.5
Close	UNLV vs HAW 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	44–20	W	O59
Close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	DEL vs MTSU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total	-8.5	31–28	L	O55.5
Loose	WKU vs NEV 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	31–16	W	U54.5
Loose	CONN vs GAST 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	34–27	P	O48
Loose	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-10	31–38	L	O47.5
Loose	BUFF vs EMU 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	31–30	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2
GAST WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UOO	2-1	67%	0-3
GAST OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
GAST	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−14.7 →−18.0▼ 3.3#133

GAST−14.5 →−8.6▲ 5.9#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NIU

Longer bar = better

GAST

#131

Offense

GAST better ▶

#34

#121

Defense

GAST better ▶

#74

0.0 #76

Turnovers

◀ NIU better

−1.0 #121

63 plays #98

Pace

GAST faster ▶

75 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: GAST defense

	NIU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	13.7 #134	23.7 #78	GAST
Yards / play	4.09 #136	5.61 #96	GAST
PPA / play	−0.11 #134	+0.07 #74	GAST
Success rate	38% #120	38% #47	GAST

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #28	36.7 #129	GAST
Yards / play	6.80 #30	5.86 #107	GAST
PPA / play	+0.25 #43	+0.28 #127	GAST
Success rate	48% #36	47% #122	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.3 #112	5.7 #108	9.0 #118	0.0 #135	4.7 #107	4.7 #132
GAST allowed	6.7 #104	3.3 #23	10.0 #51	7.3 #116	6.3 #75	13.7 #102

GAST scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	9.0 #40	17.7 #8	26.7 #12	11.3 #14	2.0 #131	13.3 #73
NIU allowed	13.7 #136	13.7 #131	27.3 #135	4.7 #68	4.7 #47	9.3 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.