Old Dominion @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Old Dominion

1-3 · Power #112

final

Final

Georgia State

3-1 · Power #91

▲ winner

Closing spread

GAST -1.5

✓ GAST W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 25–26 GAST

✓ GAST (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenODU -1.5

CloseGAST -1.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenODU -1.5

3 → GAST

CloseGAST -1.5

3 pts toward Georgia State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ODU -1.5 · closed GAST -1.5 · moved 3 toward GASTmodel GAST -0.5

model GAST -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (216 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (329 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenODU -1.5

CloseGAST -1.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 1.5-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: GAST won 42–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 2.4; 44.6 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs SDSU 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–16	W	O50.5
Close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Close	GAST vs TROY 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-1	7–28	L	U51
Close	ECU vs ARMY 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	28–6	W	U52.5
Close	VT vs PUR 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-1	17–24	L	U49
Close	NMSU vs MTSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	13–7	W	U55.5
Close	SJSU vs STAN 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–31	W	O54.5
Close	WMU vs OHIO 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	17–13	W	U47
Close	UNM vs NMSU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest	-2.75	17–27	L	U52.25
Close	UNLV vs WYO 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-2.5	34–14	W	U48.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-1	0-2
GAST WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3
GAST OUOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 793 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
GAST	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ODU 3–0 GAST ODU leads · 3 games since 2023 · ODU has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Georgia State 10 @ Old Dominion 27	ODU -28.5	GAST W
Oct 12 2024	Old Dominion 21 @ Georgia State 14	GAST -2.5	ODU W
Nov 25 2023	Georgia State 24 @ Old Dominion 25	ODU -1.5	GAST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU+1.2 →−6.3▼ 7.5#94

GAST−14.5 →−8.4▲ 6.1#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ODU

Longer bar = better

GAST

#127

Offense

GAST better ▶

#35

#50

Defense

◀ ODU better

#64

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #113

60 plays #124

Pace

GAST faster ▶

71 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: GAST defense

	ODU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #108	21.3 #54	GAST
Yards / play	4.81 #127	5.70 #92	GAST
PPA / play	−0.10 #135	+0.02 #55	GAST
Success rate	31% #138	38% #53	GAST

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #27	30.0 #115	GAST
Yards / play	6.64 #33	4.49 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #42	−0.01 #34	Even
Success rate	47% #39	35% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	4.3 #97	10.0 #64	14.3 #86	5.3 #86	2.8 #127	8.0 #124
GAST allowed	6.8 #105	4.3 #23	11.0 #58	5.5 #85	4.8 #42	10.3 #60

GAST scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	8.5 #42	16.8 #8	25.3 #12	12.0 #10	1.5 #136	13.5 #73
ODU allowed	10.3 #130	10.0 #110	20.3 #131	4.8 #73	5.0 #48	9.8 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.