San Diego State @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Toledo

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

1-2 · Power #108

final

Final

Toledo

2-1 · Power #75

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -2.5

✓ TOL W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 23–26 TOL

✓ TOL (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSDSU -1.5

CloseTOL -2.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -1.5

4 → TOL

CloseTOL -2.5

4 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -1.5 · closed TOL -2.5 · moved 4 toward TOLmodel TOL -7.5

model TOL -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (339 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (204 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSDSU -1.5

CloseTOL -2.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 2.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 41–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.6 against an average line of 4; 47.2 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CSU vs HAW 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	19–31	L	U53.5
Close	UCF vs HOU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	27–30	L	O47.5
Close	ECU vs ARMY 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	28–6	W	U52.5
Close	UAB vs UL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-2	21–41	L	O59.5
Close	MEM vs BOIS 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	35–32	L	O59.5
Close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Loose	UL vs MRSH 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest	-5	3–31	L	U57.5
Loose	WASH vs UCLA 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-5	31–19	W	O47
Loose	USM vs TROY 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	18–28	L	U50.5
Loose	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-1
TOL PWL	1-1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
TOL OOO	3-0	100%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 741 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
TOL	7-3 70%	7-2-1 78%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−1.2 →−5.0▼ 3.8#86

TOL+1.0 →−2.4▼ 3.4#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

SDSU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#119

Offense

TOL better ▶

#31

#90

Defense

TOL better ▶

#63

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−0.7 #117

65 plays #79

Pace

Even

64 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	SDSU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #96	29.3 #114	Even
Yards / play	5.02 #120	4.51 #34	TOL
PPA / play	−0.03 #127	+0.05 #64	TOL
Success rate	34% #134	36% #40	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #18	24.7 #88	TOL
Yards / play	7.14 #21	5.21 #74	TOL
PPA / play	+0.31 #27	+0.12 #91	TOL
Success rate	46% #56	44% #107	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	2.3 #116	7.3 #94	9.7 #117	7.0 #59	8.7 #45	15.7 #50
TOL allowed	7.7 #115	7.7 #78	15.3 #103	1.0 #10	11.0 #130	12.0 #92

TOL scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	7.0 #66	11.7 #44	18.7 #52	11.7 #11	11.3 #15	23.0 #9
SDSU allowed	5.3 #91	3.0 #22	8.3 #45	4.7 #67	11.7 #135	16.3 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.