Boise State @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Western Michigan

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Boise State

2-1 · Power #37

▲ winner

Final

Western Michigan

2-1 · Power #88

final

Closing spread

BOIS -8.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 28–20 WMU

✓ BOIS (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -7.5

CloseBOIS -8.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -7.5

1 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -8.5

1 pt toward Boise State

Total

Open47.5

▲ 3

Close50.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -7.5 · closed BOIS -8.5 · moved 1 toward BOISmodel BOIS -5.5

model BOIS -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 54% (108 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (318 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -7.5

CloseBOIS -8.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as an 8.5-point road favorite at WMU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 32–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 8.5; 51.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Close	LIB @ JXST 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	31–13	W	U59
Close	NAVY @ TEM 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	32–31	L	O52.5
Close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	31–27	L	O54
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Close	TXST @ ULM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-9.5	38–17	W	O50
Close	TULN @ RICE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	30–28	L	O55
Close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	13–20	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
WMU WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; WMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
WMU UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
WMU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+2.1 →+5.0▲ 2.9#48

WMU−4.7 →−3.3▲ 1.4#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BOIS

Longer bar = better

WMU

#48

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#96

#85

Defense

WMU better ▶

#62

+0.7 #42

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

+1.3 #12

73 plays #19

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

62 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Even matchup

	BOIS off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #56	16.0 #31	WMU
Yards / play	6.32 #63	5.18 #70	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #39	+0.01 #49	Even
Success rate	49% #33	43% #99	BOIS

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #80	26.0 #98	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #115	7.85 #136	WMU
PPA / play	+0.15 #79	+0.08 #75	Even
Success rate	40% #108	35% #31	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	5.7 #81	12.7 #36	18.3 #53	8.0 #46	8.0 #52	16.0 #45
WMU allowed	2.3 #23	2.3 #16	4.7 #11	4.7 #72	6.7 #82	11.3 #85

WMU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.7 #81	8.0 #86	13.7 #94	7.0 #56	9.0 #38	16.0 #45
BOIS allowed	4.7 #73	11.3 #121	16.0 #108	5.7 #89	4.3 #42	10.0 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.