UConn @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Miami (OH)

Weather at kickoff70°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UConn

2-1 · Power #91

final

Final

Miami (OH)

1-2 · Power #106

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -2.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 27–29 M-OH

✓ M-OH (56%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenM-OH -3

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -3

0.5 → CONN

CloseM-OH -2.5

0.5 pts toward UConn

Total

Open50.5

▲ 2

Close52.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -3 · closed M-OH -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward CONNmodel M-OH -1.5

model M-OH -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (341 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 61% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenM-OH -3

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 2.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 24–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 3.3; 58 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	30–45	L	O52
Close	UVA vs BC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-2	24–14	W	U52.5
Close	LT vs NMSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3	24–27	L	U55
Close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Close	JXST vs GASO 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	31–27	W	O51.5
Close	SJSU vs UNM 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	35–28	W	O58.5
Close	UCLA vs MD 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	20–17	L	U52.5
Close	NCSU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	19–29	L	U51.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	63–27	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	0-1
M-OH LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CONN away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
M-OH OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
M-OH	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−4.3 →−5.3▼ 1.0#90

M-OH−6.3 →−6.8▼ 0.5#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CONN

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#45

Offense

Even

#48

#50

Defense

◀ CONN better

#116

−0.3 #89

Turnovers

◀ CONN better

−0.7 #107

65 plays #80

Pace

◀ CONN faster

56 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #33	33.7 #122	CONN
Yards / play	6.79 #33	6.53 #121	CONN
PPA / play	+0.25 #45	+0.18 #113	CONN
Success rate	44% #70	45% #109	CONN

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #78	21.7 #65	Even
Yards / play	6.76 #35	4.76 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #21	−0.04 #33	Even
Success rate	46% #57	39% #57	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	14.0 #5	9.0 #75	23.0 #26	11.7 #13	4.7 #107	16.3 #43
M-OH allowed	9.3 #121	3.3 #23	12.7 #84	14.0 #135	7.0 #91	21.0 #136

M-OH scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	9.3 #35	18.7 #7	28.0 #8	1.0 #133	1.0 #133	2.0 #137
CONN allowed	3.3 #49	4.3 #37	7.7 #36	7.0 #105	7.0 #91	14.0 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.