Massachusetts @ Sacramento State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Sacramento State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

3-0 · Power #123

▲ winner

Final

Sacramento State

1-3 · Power #138

final

Closing spread

MASS -6

✓ MASS W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 28–23 SAC

✓ MASS (65%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMASS -6

CloseMASS -6

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMASS -6

no move

CloseMASS -6

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MASS -6 · unchangedmodel MASS -3.5

model MASS -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 62%, covered 48% (144 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMASS -6

CloseMASS -6

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MASS as a 6-point road favorite at SAC, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MASS won 35–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 5.5; 58.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA @ USU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-4	30–49	L	O51.5
Close	SDSU @ NEV 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	44–10	W	O42.5
Close	VAN @ GAST 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-9	32–36	L	O45.5
Close	TEM @ TLSA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	38–37	L	O52.5
Close	LT @ UTEP 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–11	W	U48
Close	TLSA @ NMSU 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.25	14–21	L	U53
Loose	LT @ KENN 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & situation	-4.5	7–35	L	U46.5
Loose	AFA @ SJSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	45–20	W	O45.5
Loose	ARMY @ TEM 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-11	42–14	W	O47
Loose	RICE @ USF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	29–42	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
SAC LWLW	2-2	50%	2-0	1-2

Venue/role: MASS away, as favorite; SAC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
SAC UUOU	1-3	25%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
SAClast 8	2-6 25%	5-3 63%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−25.4 →−14.2▲ 11.2#121

SAC−16.9 →−21.2▼ 4.3#137

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MASS

Longer bar = better

SAC

#35

Offense

◀ MASS better

#126

#13

Defense

◀ MASS better

#77

+2.3 #2

Turnovers

◀ MASS better

−1.5 #135

54 plays #137

Pace

SAC faster ▶

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	SAC def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #38	27.0 #100	MASS
Yards / play	6.55 #40	5.76 #98	MASS
PPA / play	+0.31 #22	+0.08 #77	MASS
Success rate	47% #39	35% #32	Even

When SAC has the ball

Advantage: MASS defense

	SAC off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #121	15.0 #25	MASS
Yards / play	4.97 #121	4.29 #19	MASS
PPA / play	−0.10 #136	−0.25 #1	MASS
Success rate	37% #125	31% #6	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the SAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	12.3 #10	7.7 #92	20.0 #41	8.7 #39	8.0 #53	16.7 #38
SAC allowed	5.3 #86	15.0 #135	20.3 #130	3.5 #46	3.3 #18	6.8 #25

SAC scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SAC scored	3.5 #108	7.5 #93	11.0 #107	2.5 #124	7.0 #73	9.5 #109
MASS allowed	4.7 #75	0.0 #1	4.7 #8	1.0 #12	9.3 #121	10.3 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.