Sacramento State @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Sacramento State

1-4 · Power #138

final

Final

Bowling Green

1-4 · Power #129

▲ winner

Closing spread

BGSU -9.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

SAC 17–27 BGSU

✓ BGSU (76%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBGSU -6.5

CloseBGSU -9.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -6.5

3 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -9.5

3 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -6.5 · closed BGSU -9.5 · moved 3 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -11.5

model BGSU -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 47% (173 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (115 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBGSU -6.5

CloseBGSU -9.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 9.5-point home favorite against SAC, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 7.9; 54.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NIU vs BALL 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	21–7	W	U42
Close	FIU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	CSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-12.5	30–20	L	O45.5
Close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Close	CMU vs AKR 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	41–17	W	O47.5
Close	UTEP vs KENN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	43–35	W	O42.5
Close	NIU vs KENT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-5	31–35	L	O44.5
Close	ARMY vs MASS 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	14–21	L	U49
Close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Loose	MTSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	40–6	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC LWLWL	2-3	40%	0-2	1-3
BGSU LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: SAC away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC UUOUU	1-4	20%	1-4
BGSU UOOUO	3-2	60%	1-4

Went over in Q4. Of 382 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 9	2-7 22%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%
BGSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SAC−16.9 →−22.2▼ 5.3#138

BGSU−12.7 →−15.9▼ 3.2#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SAC

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#126

Offense

Even

#133

#84

Defense

◀ SAC better

#120

−1.8 #138

Turnovers

BGSU better ▶

−0.2 #82

68 plays #51

Pace

◀ SAC faster

58 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SAC has the ball

Even matchup

	SAC off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #130	33.0 #123	Even
Yards / play	4.79 #132	6.81 #132	Even
PPA / play	−0.11 #136	+0.16 #100	BGSU
Success rate	40% #107	46% #123	Even

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: SAC defense

	BGSU off	SAC def	Edge
Points / game	11.4 #138	28.6 #109	SAC
Yards / play	4.49 #135	5.85 #105	SAC
PPA / play	−0.09 #133	+0.13 #90	SAC
Success rate	38% #124	36% #31	SAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SAC scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SAC scored	2.8 #118	7.2 #98	10.0 #118	2.0 #132	5.6 #101	7.6 #129
BGSU allowed	8.4 #126	10.2 #114	18.6 #126	2.6 #28	11.8 #135	14.4 #114

BGSU scoring against the SAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	2.0 #129	4.0 #128	6.0 #136	0.6 #137	4.8 #111	5.4 #137
SAC allowed	5.6 #91	14.8 #136	20.4 #132	5.6 #79	2.6 #6	8.2 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.