Central Michigan @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

3-2 · Power #120

final

Final

Ohio

3-2 · Power #96

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -2.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 23–26 OHIO

✓ OHIO (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOHIO -3.5

CloseOHIO -2.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -3.5

1 → CMU

CloseOHIO -2.5

1 pt toward Central Michigan

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -3.5 · closed OHIO -2.5 · moved 1 toward CMUmodel OHIO -5

model OHIO -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (359 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (145 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOHIO -3.5

CloseOHIO -2.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 2.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: OHIO won 31–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.8 against an average line of 3.1; 46.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs BGSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	MOST vs FIU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	28–21	W	U50
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	USA vs UL 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	22–31	L	O52.5
Very close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	SYR vs UNC 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	10–27	L	U45.5
Very close	ODU vs GAST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	25–24	L	U50
Very close	RICE vs ECU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–17	W	U47
Very close	UTEP vs NMSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	31–34	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LLWLW	2-3	40%	0-2	1-2
OHIO LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU UUUOO	2-3	40%	3-2
OHIO OOOUU	3-2	60%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
OHIO	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CMU 0–2 OHIO OHIO leads · 2 games since 2023 · OHIO has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Ohio 27 @ Central Michigan 25	OHIO -2.5	CMU W
Nov 15 2023	Central Michigan 20 @ Ohio 34	OHIO -10.5	OHIO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−10.4 →−13.1▼ 2.7#119

OHIO−5.6 →−10.9▼ 5.3#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CMU

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#115

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#76

#102

Defense

Even

#102

0.0 #68

Turnovers

◀ CMU better

−0.6 #105

58 plays #128

Pace

OHIO faster ▶

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #129	26.8 #100	OHIO
Yards / play	4.95 #125	5.68 #95	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.09 #94	+0.21 #118	CMU
Success rate	39% #112	43% #93	Even

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #84	25.4 #85	Even
Yards / play	5.45 #101	5.63 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #66	+0.20 #115	OHIO
Success rate	45% #52	46% #116	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	1.2 #136	7.0 #97	8.2 #125	5.4 #84	4.0 #124	9.4 #113
OHIO allowed	5.6 #90	7.4 #71	13.0 #88	7.0 #99	6.2 #74	13.2 #97

OHIO scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	5.4 #85	6.2 #107	11.6 #100	6.2 #72	8.0 #51	14.2 #60
CMU allowed	2.8 #25	11.6 #127	14.4 #98	5.6 #80	5.4 #53	11.0 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.