Eastern Michigan @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

3-3 · Power #128

▲ winner

Final

Akron

1-4 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

EMU -4.5

✓ AKR W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 29–25 AKR

✓ EMU (61%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenEMU -3.5

CloseEMU -4.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenEMU -3.5

1 → EMU

CloseEMU -4.5

1 pt toward Eastern Michigan

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened EMU -3.5 · closed EMU -4.5 · moved 1 toward EMUmodel EMU -2

model EMU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (173 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (339 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenEMU -3.5

CloseEMU -4.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 4.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 25–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 4.2; 51.1 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	CMU @ AKR 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	22–28	L	O47.5
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	41–30	W	O48
Very close	UL @ EMU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	31–34	L	O51.5
Very close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Very close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	14–16	L	U56
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	28–7	W	U49
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.75	31–37	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU LLLWW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-1
AKR WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: EMU away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UUOUO	2-4	33%	3-3
AKR OOUUO	3-2	60%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
AKR	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

EMU 1–1 AKR Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · AKR has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Eastern Michigan 21 @ Akron 25	EMU -2.5	AKR W
Nov 14 2023	Akron 27 @ Eastern Michigan 30	EMU -3	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−12.8 →−14.2▼ 1.4#123

AKR−15.6 →−18.4▼ 2.8#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

EMU

Longer bar = better

AKR

#110

Offense

Even

#115

#82

Defense

◀ EMU better

#126

+0.3 #55

Turnovers

◀ EMU better

−1.2 #131

64 plays #92

Pace

AKR faster ▶

65 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #109	33.6 #126	Even
Yards / play	4.85 #126	6.93 #134	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #104	+0.28 #131	EMU
Success rate	41% #101	45% #111	Even

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	AKR off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #121	25.0 #79	EMU
Yards / play	5.17 #117	5.76 #100	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.08 #72	EMU
Success rate	41% #102	41% #76	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.5 #97	8.0 #88	12.5 #93	5.2 #88	4.5 #115	9.7 #110
AKR allowed	5.4 #86	13.2 #134	18.6 #128	8.2 #122	6.8 #84	15.0 #118

AKR scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	2.8 #117	5.4 #115	8.2 #125	2.6 #126	8.2 #47	10.8 #102
EMU allowed	1.7 #10	10.3 #122	12.0 #74	5.7 #82	7.3 #100	13.0 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.