Toledo @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Toledo

4-2 · Power #75

▲ winner

Final

Eastern Michigan

4-3 · Power #128

final

Closing spread

TOL -7.5

✓ TOL W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 31–23 EMU

✓ TOL (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTOL -6.5

CloseTOL -7.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -6.5

1 → TOL

CloseTOL -7.5

1 pt toward Toledo

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -6.5 · closed TOL -7.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel TOL -9

model TOL -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 52% (171 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (120 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTOL -6.5

CloseTOL -7.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 7.5-point road favorite at EMU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 34–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 9; 61.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ DEL 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-7	30–14	W	U51.5
Very close	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	32–31	L	O49.5
Very close	LT @ DEL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	24–25	L	U56.5
Very close	JXST @ LT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-10	44–37	L	O55.5
Very close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	NAVY @ TEM 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	32–31	L	O52.5
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	CONN @ UAB 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–23	W	P54
Very close	TULN @ FAU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9	24–8	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WLWLL	2-3-1	40%	0-1-1	2-3
EMU LLWWL	3-4	43%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; EMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OOOOU	5-1	83%	4-2
EMU UOUOU	2-5	29%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%
EMU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TOL 2–0 EMU TOL leads · 2 games since 2023 · TOL has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Toledo 29 @ Eastern Michigan 28	TOL -10.5	EMU W
Nov 8 2023	Eastern Michigan 23 @ Toledo 49	TOL -20	TOL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+1.0 →−3.9▼ 4.9#80

EMU−12.8 →−14.5▼ 1.7#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TOL

Longer bar = better

EMU

#40

Offense

◀ TOL better

#103

#42

Defense

◀ TOL better

#87

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #72

68 plays #48

Pace

◀ TOL faster

66 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #29	24.7 #81	TOL
Yards / play	6.66 #25	5.85 #102	TOL
PPA / play	+0.24 #33	+0.12 #90	TOL
Success rate	43% #74	41% #76	Even

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	EMU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #108	25.2 #84	TOL
Yards / play	4.91 #123	4.70 #24	TOL
PPA / play	+0.09 #94	+0.03 #43	TOL
Success rate	42% #88	35% #17	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	5.7 #84	9.0 #69	14.7 #76	9.8 #14	11.0 #8	20.8 #7
EMU allowed	2.4 #14	9.9 #114	12.3 #75	5.3 #82	7.1 #94	12.4 #91

EMU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.3 #102	8.3 #83	12.6 #97	4.9 #94	5.1 #112	10.0 #108
TOL allowed	6.5 #107	5.5 #36	12.0 #69	3.2 #33	9.0 #121	12.2 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.