Western Michigan @ Toledo: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Toledo · Conference game

Kickoff forecast55°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

5-2 · Power #88

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Toledo

5-2 · Power #75

projected

WMU 40%

60% TOL

Spread

TOL -3

open TOL -1.5

Total

47.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

TOL by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTOL -1.5

CurrentTOL -3

Total44.5 → 47.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenTOL -1.5

1.5 → TOL

NowTOL -3

1.5 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open44.5

▲ 3

Now47.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened TOL -1.5 · now TOL -3 · moved 1.5 toward TOLmodel TOL -5

model TOL -5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: TOL by 3.4 pts (open -1.5, now -3). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 70% of the 390 games where the line moved (444 at that gap), but those sides covered 52.2% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (317 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTOL -1.5

CurrentTOL -3

Total44.5 → 47.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:04

Western Michigan at Toledo: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:30 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved 1.5 points toward Toledo since it opened. Western Michigan heads to Toledo for a Saturday kickoff at 12 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have Toledo 75th and Western Michigan 88th. That’s about 2 points better than Western Michigan on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Western Michigan has dropped from 84th to 88th, while Toledo has dropped from 65th to 75th. Kickoff forecast at Glass Bowl: 58 degrees, dry, wind 1 miles per hour. Western Michigan is 1 and 3 against the spread on the road. Toledo has the better offense, 34th to 84th. On defense, Toledo ranks 28th and Western Michigan 53rd. Toledo plays at the faster pace. The model has Toledo winning 26 to 23, a 60 percent chance. Toledo is favored by 3, up from 1.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 44.5 and sits at 47.5. Our model makes it Toledo by 5, with a total near 48.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	WMU	TOL	Over	Under	WMU	TOL
BetMGMMGM	+3.5-112	-3.5-105	47.5-110	47.5-110	+140	-165
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-102	-3-118	47-110	47-110	+143	-163
BetRiversBetRivers	+3.5-113	-3.5-110	47.5-108	47.5-114	+138	-175
BetUSBetUS	+3+100	-3-120	47-110	47-110	+142	-165
BovadaBovada	+3.5-120	-3.5+100	47.5-105	47.5-115	+140	-165
DraftKingsDK	+3-118	-3-102	47.5-105	47.5-115	+124	-148
FanDuelFD	+3.5-115	-3.5-105	47.5-114	47.5-106	+134	-162
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3+102	-3-114	47-108	47-108	+143	-163
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+3-110	-3-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	+135	-166

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	WMU	TOL	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+1.5-116	-1.5-104	22.5-115	22.5-105
DraftKingsDK	+1.5-112	-1.5-108	23.5-110	23.5-110
FanDuelFD	+1.5-120	-1.5-102	22.5-115	22.5-105

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

WMU +3

TOL -3

Bets45% 55%

Money56% 44%

Money is 11 pts ahead of bets on WMU +3

Winner

WMU

TOL

Bets12% 88%

Money43% 57%

Money is 31 pts ahead of bets on WMU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 3-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 3; 54.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs TROY 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	33–6	W	U49.5
Close	AFA vs UNLV 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	41–31	W	O49.5
Close	UL vs ARST 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	23–20	L	U49.5
Close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Close	TOL vs SDSU 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–16	W	O50.5
Close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Close	OHIO vs M-OH 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Close	NCSU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	19–29	L	U51.5
Close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Close	JXST vs FIU 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	27–24	P	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU LLLWL	3-4	43%	1-3	1-1
TOL LWLLW	3-3-1	50%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OUUOU	3-4	43%	5-2
TOL OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2

In 1292 games with totals 43.5–51.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TOL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Western Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs BGSU	L13–31LU
Nov 10	@ AKR	W34–24WO
Nov 17	vs EMU	W31–21WO

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ SAC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 11	vs MASS	W38–23LO
Nov 20	vs BGSU	L23–28LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WMU 24–39 TOL TOL leads · 63 games since 1962 · WMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2025	Toledo 13 @ Western Michigan 14	TOL -11.5	WMU W
Sep 23 2023	Western Michigan 31 @ Toledo 49	TOL -21.5	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−4.7 →−4.7–#89

TOL+1.0 →−2.5▼ 3.5#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WMU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#84

Offense

TOL better ▶

#34

#53

Defense

TOL better ▶

#28

+0.6 #27

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

0.0 #80

60 plays #125

Pace

TOL faster ▶

69 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	WMU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #91	23.6 #67	TOL
Yards / play	5.40 #108	4.58 #16	TOL
PPA / play	+0.16 #64	−0.01 #23	TOL
Success rate	43% #71	34% #6	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #27	16.9 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.69 #20	5.01 #41	TOL
PPA / play	+0.24 #30	+0.07 #56	TOL
Success rate	44% #59	42% #90	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.4 #87	6.9 #101	12.3 #99	4.4 #108	8.3 #48	12.7 #82
TOL allowed	5.6 #88	5.7 #41	11.3 #56	3.7 #40	7.7 #99	11.4 #71

TOL scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.3 #70	10.7 #38	17.0 #51	8.9 #16	9.4 #22	18.3 #14
WMU allowed	3.1 #32	4.0 #20	7.1 #13	3.4 #37	6.3 #69	9.7 #47

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.