Bowling Green @ Buffalo: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Kickoff forecast64°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

2-5 · Power #129

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Buffalo

4-3 · Power #125

projected

BGSU 41%

59% BUFF

Spread

BUFF -3

open BUFF -4.5

Total

44.5

model 47

Spread edge

BUFF by 0.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBUFF -4.5

CurrentBUFF -3

Total43.5 → 44.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenBUFF -4.5

1.5 → BGSU

NowBUFF -3

1.5 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Now44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -4.5 · now BUFF -3 · moved 1.5 toward BGSUmodel BUFF -3.5

model BUFF -3.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (317 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBUFF -4.5

CurrentBUFF -3

Total43.5 → 44.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:09

Bowling Green at Buffalo: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:00 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The market has moved toward Bowling Green. Here is why that matters. It’s Bowling Green at Buffalo, Saturday at 3:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Bowling Green is 129th and Buffalo is 125th. That’s about 1 points better than Bowling Green on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Bowling Green has fallen from 117th to 129th, while Buffalo has fallen from 119th to 125th. Kickoff forecast at Broadview Stadium: 63 degrees, dry, wind 3 miles per hour. Against the spread, Bowling Green is 3 and 4 and Buffalo is 3 and 4. The offenses are close: 120th and 124th. Buffalo has the better defense, 72nd to 116th. Buffalo plays at the faster pace. The model has Buffalo winning 25 to 22, a 59 percent chance. Buffalo is favored by 3, down from 4.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 43.5 and sits at 44.5. Our model makes it Buffalo by 3.5, with a total near 47. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	BGSU	BUFF	Over	Under	BGSU	BUFF
BetMGMMGM	+3-105	-3-115	44.5-112	44.5-105	+130	-160
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-108	-3-112	44.5-110	44.5-110	+140	-160
BetRiversBetRivers	+3.5-120	-3.5-105	44.5-107	44.5-117	+135	-167
BetUSBetUS	+3-110	-3-110	44.5-110	44.5-110	+138	-160
BovadaBovada	+3-105	-3-115	45-105	45-115	+135	-160
DraftKingsDK	+3-108	-3-112	44.5-112	44.5-108	+136	-162
FanDuelFD	+3.5-120	-3.5-102	44.5-110	44.5-110	+128	-154
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3-104	-3-108	44.5-108	44.5-108	+140	-160
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+3-110	-3-110	44.5-110	44.5-110	+131	-161

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	BGSU	BUFF	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	22.5-112	22.5-108
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	22.5-115	22.5-105
FanDuelFD	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	22.5-110	22.5-110

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

BGSU

BUFF

Bets6% 94%

Money33% 67%

Money is 27 pts ahead of bets on BGSU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 3-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 3.4; 45.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	30–27	L	O39.5
Very close	BUFF vs MASS 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–3	W	U45.5
Very close	RICE vs CLT 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	20–21	L	U48
Very close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Very close	BGSU vs AKR 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	16–19	L	U47.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	UTEP vs NMSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4	31–34	L	O44.5
Very close	OHIO vs BUFF 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	47–16	W	O46.5
Very close	NMSU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	27–13	W	U42.5
Very close	NEV vs AFA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	19–22	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LWWWL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-2
BUFF LLWWW	3-4	43%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU OUOOO	5-2	71%	2-5
BUFF OOUUU	3-4	43%	4-3

In 907 games with totals 40.5–48.5, 54% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 34% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bowling Green

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ WMU	W31–13WU
Nov 10	vs KENT	L21–24LU
Nov 20	@ TOL	W28–23WO

Buffalo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 3	@ M-OH	L20–37LO
Nov 11	@ BALL	W51–48LO
Nov 18	vs CMU	L19–38LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BGSU 13–9 BUFF BGSU leads · 22 games since 2000 · BUFF has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Buffalo 28 @ Bowling Green 3	BGSU -2.5	BUFF W
Oct 14 2023	Bowling Green 24 @ Buffalo 14	BUFF -2.5	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−12.7 →−16.5▼ 3.8#129

BUFF−12.9 →−15.5▼ 2.6#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BGSU

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#120

Offense

Even

#124

#116

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#72

−0.1 #83

Turnovers

◀ BGSU better

−0.6 #112

58 plays #134

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

75 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	BGSU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #129	25.6 #87	BUFF
Yards / play	4.84 #131	5.79 #95	BUFF
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	+0.08 #68	BUFF
Success rate	40% #99	38% #39	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #111	29.6 #114	Even
Yards / play	4.35 #136	6.28 #120	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.16 #105	Even
Success rate	35% #132	47% #125	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	1.4 #136	6.7 #102	8.1 #127	1.4 #136	7.4 #58	8.9 #124
BUFF allowed	8.4 #129	6.4 #59	14.9 #103	4.3 #54	6.4 #77	10.7 #65

BUFF scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	3.1 #118	7.6 #93	10.7 #110	3.6 #123	6.1 #91	9.7 #115
BGSU allowed	6.9 #112	8.3 #84	15.1 #104	2.9 #29	10.4 #135	13.3 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.