South Alabama @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Tue, Oct 20, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

4-2 · Power #101

final

Final

Marshall

3-3 · Power #114

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -1.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

66.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 33–32 MRSH

✗ USA (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSA -3

CloseUSA -1.5

Total62.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:25

South Alabama at Marshall: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 20, 11:32 PM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -3

1.5 → MRSH

CloseUSA -1.5

1.5 pts toward Marshall

Total

Open62.5

▲ 4

Close66.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened USA -3 · closed USA -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward MRSHmodel USA -2.5

model USA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 50% (193 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 57% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSA -3

CloseUSA -1.5

Total62.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	USA	MRSH	Over	Under	USA	MRSH
BetMGMMGM	-2.5-115	+2.5-102	65.5-105	65.5-115	-145	+120
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2.5-118	+2.5-102	64.5-116	64.5-104	-143	+123
BetRiversBetRivers	-2.5-114	+2.5-109	64.5-110	64.5-113	-148	+117
BetUSBetUS	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	65-110	65-110	-145	+125
BovadaBovada	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	65.5-110	65.5-110	-140	+120
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-115	+1.5-105	66.5-108	66.5-112	-125	+105
FanDuelFD	-2.5-112	+2.5-108	65.5-106	65.5-114	-140	+116
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-2.5-111	+2.5-101	64.5-115	64.5-102	-143	+123
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	65.5-110	65.5-110	-141	+115

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

7 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	USA	MRSH	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	-1.5-110	+1.5-108	37.5+165	37.5-225
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	32.5-105	32.5-115
BetRiversBetRivers	+1.5-182	-1.5+135	33.5-117	33.5-114
BetUSBetUS	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	32.5-105	32.5-115
BovadaBovada	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	31.5-115	31.5-105
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	31.5-112	31.5-108
FanDuelFD	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	33.5-110	33.5-110

Last prices before kickoff from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 1.5-point road favorite at MRSH, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 20–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 66.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5.1 against an average line of 3.4; 61.9 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNT @ TLSA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2	35–28	W	U69.5
Close	USF @ UAB 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	35–56	L	O68.5
Close	ARST @ USM 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-5.5	23–13	W	U61.5
Close	HAW @ USU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	10–55	L	O62
Close	GASO @ BALL 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings	-6	40–3	W	U61
Close	USA @ ARST 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	16–18	L	U62.5
Close	MRSH @ APP 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-4	24–26	L	U56.5
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Loose	USM @ GASO 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	38–35	P	O60
Loose	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA WLLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-1
MRSH LWLLL	1-5	17%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; MRSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OOOOO	5-1	83%	4-2
MRSH UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 48 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 41% of games with totals 62.5–70.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
MRSH	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USA 1–0 MRSH USA leads · 1 game since 2023 · USA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Marshall 0 @ South Alabama 28	USA -10	USA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−9.6 →−7.8▲ 1.8#100

MRSH−5.9 →−13.0▼ 7.1#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

USA

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#40

Offense

◀ USA better

#75

#133

Defense

Even

#129

+1.3 #7

Turnovers

◀ USA better

−1.5 #137

71 plays #21

Pace

Even

70 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #15	33.7 #129	USA
Yards / play	6.15 #52	6.78 #133	USA
PPA / play	+0.24 #27	+0.32 #137	USA
Success rate	43% #65	45% #118	USA

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #109	34.5 #131	MRSH
Yards / play	5.81 #75	7.25 #137	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.16 #63	+0.27 #129	MRSH
Success rate	45% #54	51% #136	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USA scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	13.0 #2	10.7 #41	23.7 #11	8.8 #18	6.3 #84	15.2 #39
MRSH allowed	10.2 #134	9.7 #108	19.8 #134	9.3 #131	4.5 #30	13.8 #109

MRSH scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	6.3 #64	5.7 #117	12.0 #101	3.3 #125	6.7 #77	10.0 #108
USA allowed	5.8 #95	9.8 #112	15.7 #108	9.3 #131	9.5 #127	18.8 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.