Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Troy · Conference game
ULM 17%83% TROY
Spread
TROY -11.5
open TROY -17.5
Total
50.5
model 50
Spread edge
TROY by 8
lean · context
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Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenTROY -17.5
CurrentTROY -11.5
Total50.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenTROY -17.5
6 → ULM
NowTROY -11.5
6 pts toward UL Monroe
Total
Open50.5
no move
Now50.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot
Opened TROY -17.5 · now TROY -13.5 · moved 4 toward ULMmodel TROY -19.5
model TROY -19.5
Opened 50.5 · unchangedmodel 50
model 50
Openline modelNow
Line context
Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 42% (136 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (90 games since 2024)ⓘ
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenTROY -17.5
CurrentTROY -11.5
Total50.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Game preview · 1:10
UL Monroe at Troy: game preview
Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:06 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.
Transcript
The market has moved toward UL Monroe. Here is why that matters. UL Monroe visits Troy, Saturday at 4 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Troy sits 98th, UL Monroe 137th. That’s about 15.5 points better than UL Monroe on a neutral field. Since the preseason, UL Monroe has dropped from 130th to 137th, while Troy has slipped from 95th to 98th. Kickoff forecast at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL): 72 degrees, dry, wind 11 miles per hour, gusting to 16. Troy has the better offense, 88th to 114th. Troy has the better defense, 76th to 135th. Troy plays at the faster pace. UL Monroe is 1 and 5 against the spread this season. Troy games have gone under 5 of 6 times. The model has Troy winning 32 to 18, a 85 percent chance. Troy is favored by 13.5, down from 17.5 at the open, away from our model. The total is 50.5. Our model makes it Troy by 19.5, with a total near 50. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview
Books
9 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ULM |  TROY | Over | Under | ULM | TROY | |
| BetMGMMGM | +13.5-110 | -13.5-110 | 50.5-110 | 50.5-110 | +475 | -625 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | +13-105 | -13-115 | 50.5-107 | 50.5-113 | +461 | -625 |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +14-109 | -14-114 | 50.5-113 | 50.5-110 | +480 | -715 |
| BetUSBetUS | +13.5-110 | -13.5-110 | 50.5-110 | 50.5-110 | +465 | -625 |
| BovadaBovada | +13.5-105 | -13.5-115 | 50.5-110 | 50.5-110 | +475 | -700 |
| DraftKingsDK | +11.5-108 | -11.5-112 | 50.5-110 | 50.5-110 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuelFD | +13.5-110 | -13.5-110 | 50.5-110 | 50.5-110 | +480 | -690 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | +13-101 | -13-111 | 50.5-105 | 50.5-112 | +461 | -625 |
| MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag | +13.5-110 | -13.5-110 | 50.5-110 | 50.5-110 | +455 | -673 |
1st-half prices
3 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | TROY | Over | Under | |
| BetUSBetUS | +9.5-111 | -9.5-109 | 26.5-117 | 26.5-103 |
| DraftKingsDK | +8.5-112 | -8.5-108 | 26.5-118 | 26.5-102 |
| FanDuelFD | +9.5-102 | -9.5-118 | 26.5-118 | 26.5-104 |
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Winner
ULMTROYBets1%
99%
Money5%
95%
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like TROY as an 11.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.
Compare by
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Show up togames
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 78%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 11.4; 48.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form |
-8 | 30–10 | W | U46 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation |
-17.5 | 31–38 | L | O47.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest |
-11 | 30–27 | L | O47.5 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form |
-12.5 | 52–35 | W | O57.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation |
-11 | 0–6 | L | U48.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation |
-8.5 | 31–34 | L | O52.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-17.5 | 24–7 | L | U45.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & season form |
-9.5 | 31–19 | W | U51 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-10.5 | 33–0 | W | U41.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar total |
-7.5 | 31–16 | W | U54.5 |
OHIO
AKR
TEM
CLT
UL
USA
SDSU
NEV
USM
ARMY
GAST
LT
KENN
WKUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Troy 83%
Projected ULM 18 – TROY 31 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
TROY -19.5
Market TROY -11.5
Against the spread
Lean TROY -11.5
8.1-pt edge · No edge, context only · 1278-1338 (48.9%)
Total
No lean
Model 50 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.
How the model gets there (points from TROY’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadTROY rating edge+16.9+Home field+2.5+Travel+0.2=Model marginTROY by 19.6
TotalScoring ratings52.2+Wind 11 mph−2.4=Model total49.8
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Troy ATS trend
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
UL Monroe ATS struggles (1-5)
UL Monroe have covered only 17% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 262-295 (47%)
UL Monroe 1-4 ATS as an underdog
Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 221-216 (51%)
Market moved toward UL Monroe
6 pts (TROY -17.5 → TROY -11.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
In 1518 games with totals 46.5–54.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 0-10 0% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
| TROY | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 1-9 10% |
Recent meetings
Last 3 since 2023
ULM 8–11 TROY
TROY leads · 19 games since 1995 · TROY has won the last meeting
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 2025 | Troy 37 @ UL Monroe 14 | TROY -5.5 | TROY W |
| Sep 28 2024 | UL Monroe 13 @ Troy 9 | TROY -6.5 | ULM W |
| Nov 11 2023 | Troy 45 @ UL Monroe 14 | TROY -21.5 | TROY W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ULM−17.2 →−23.0▼ 5.8#137
TROY−8.5 →−7.7▲ 0.8#99
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7
ULMLonger bar = better
TROY#114
Offense
TROY better ▶#88
#135
Defense
TROY better ▶#76
−0.8 #125
Turnovers
TROY better ▶0.0 #78
64 plays #90
Pace
TROY faster ▶70 plays #33
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When ULM has the ball| ULM off | TROY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 20.0 #122 | 25.5 #83 | TROY |
| Yards / play | 5.30 #113 | 5.61 #84 | TROY |
| PPA / play | −0.06 #134 | +0.07 #66 | TROY |
| Success rate | 42% #87 | 41% #69 | Even |
When TROY has the ball| TROY off | ULM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 24.3 #96 | 41.2 #137 | TROY |
| Yards / play | 5.75 #82 | 6.92 #136 | TROY |
| PPA / play | +0.10 #91 | +0.28 #131 | TROY |
| Success rate | 42% #83 | 49% #135 | TROY |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
ULM scoring against the TROY defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM scored | 3.5 #112 | 7.2 #99 | 10.7 #111 | 5.7 #83 | 3.7 #131 | 9.3 #121 |
| TROY allowed | 4.7 #68 | 8.3 #87 | 13.0 #80 | 8.5 #127 | 4.0 #18 | 12.5 #87 |
TROY scoring against the ULM defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY scored | 9.2 #23 | 8.0 #87 | 17.2 #49 | 3.7 #122 | 3.5 #134 | 7.2 #136 |
| ULM allowed | 9.3 #134 | 14.2 #135 | 23.5 #137 | 8.7 #128 | 9.0 #123 | 17.7 #129 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
TROY +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
72° · 11 mph
Wind trims 2.4 pts off the total
Rest
ULM7d
TROY7d
Even
Tempo
Average 134 plays
slowavg 133fast
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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