San José State @ Nevada: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Nevada · Conference game

Kickoff forecast58°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

San José State

4-3 · Power #111

projected

Sat 5:00 PM ET

Nevada

2-4 · Power #109

projected

SJSU 33%

67% NEV

Spread

NEV -6.5

open NEV -5.5

Total

46.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

SJSU by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNEV -5.5

CurrentNEV -6.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenNEV -5.5

1 → NEV

NowNEV -6.5

1 pt toward Nevada

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Now46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened NEV -5.5 · now NEV -6.5 · moved 1 toward NEVmodel NEV -5.5

model NEV -5.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 54% (275 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (352 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenNEV -5.5

CurrentNEV -6.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:12

San José State at Nevada: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:08 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

Our power ratings can barely separate these two. San José State heads to Nevada for a Saturday kickoff at 5 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, San José State is 111th and Nevada is 109th. Since the preseason, San José State has fallen from 107th to 111th, while Nevada has moved up from 121st to 109th. Kickoff forecast at Mackay Stadium: 58 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour. San José State climb about 4500 feet to play here, and the model gives the home side points for it. The offenses are close: 94th and 95th. On defense, Nevada ranks 56th and San José State 67th. San José State is 4 and 0 against the spread on the road. San José State games have gone under 6 of 7 times. The model has Nevada winning 28 to 22, a 67 percent chance. Nevada is favored by 6.5, up from 5.5 at the open, away from our model. The total opened at 45.5 and sits at 46.5. Our model makes it Nevada by 5.5, with a total near 49.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	SJSU	NEV	Over	Under	SJSU	NEV
BetMGMMGM	+7-115	-7-105	46.5-112	46.5-105	+210	-250
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+6.5+102	-6.5-122	47.5-110	47.5-110	+219	-265
BetRiversBetRivers	+6.5-109	-6.5-114	46.5-112	46.5-112	+200	-250
BetUSBetUS	+7-105	-7-115	47.5-110	47.5-110	+235	-280
BovadaBovada	+7-120	-7+100	46.5-110	46.5-110	+215	-260
DraftKingsDK	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	46.5-112	46.5-108	+205	-250
FanDuelFD	+6.5-105	-6.5-115	46.5-110	46.5-110	+205	-255
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+6.5+106	-6.5-118	47.5-108	47.5-108	+219	-265
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+7-110	-7-110	46.5-110	46.5-110	+220	-280

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	SJSU	NEV	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	22.5-119	22.5-101
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-112	-2.5-108	23.5-105	23.5-115
FanDuelFD	+2.5-108	-2.5-112	22.5-120	22.5-102

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

SJSU

NEV

Bets8% 92%

Money40% 60%

Money is 32 pts ahead of bets on SJSU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEV as a 6.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 6.1; 38.1 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	28–0	W	U46.5
Very close	LIB vs MOST 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-7.5	17–21	L	U51.5
Very close	USM vs TROY 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	18–28	L	U50.5
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–21	L	O43.5
Very close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Very close	ARMY vs TEM 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	14–13	L	U45.5
Very close	ARST vs KENN 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	17–14	L	U53.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	CONN vs BUFF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	47–3	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU LLWLW	4-3	57%	4-0	3-1
NEV LLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; NEV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU UUUUU	1-6	14%	4-3
NEV UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4

In 1155 games with totals 42.5–50.5, 54% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
NEV	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San José State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs UNM	W35–28WO
Nov 7	vs NIU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ AFA	L16–26LU

Nevada

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ UCLA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 6	vs UNM	L22–24WU
Nov 14	@ NIU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SJSU 8–21 NEV NEV leads · 29 games since 1948 · NEV has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	San José State 10 @ Nevada 55	SJSU -9.5	NEV W
Oct 5 2024	Nevada 31 @ San José State 35	SJSU -7.5	NEV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−10.3 →−11.1▼ 0.8#110

NEV−13.2 →−11.1▲ 2.1#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

SJSU

Longer bar = better

NEV

#94

Offense

Even

#95

#67

Defense

Even

#56

0.0 #70

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

−1.3 #136

67 plays #65

Pace

◀ SJSU faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: NEV defense

	SJSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #110	23.5 #66	NEV
Yards / play	5.77 #80	4.90 #30	NEV
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	+0.12 #85	Even
Success rate	40% #104	39% #44	NEV

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	NEV off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #89	21.7 #53	SJSU
Yards / play	5.71 #85	5.38 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	+0.07 #59	SJSU
Success rate	40% #103	42% #89	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	1.4 #136	6.3 #107	7.7 #129	5.7 #81	8.0 #49	13.7 #63
NEV allowed	3.3 #35	8.3 #87	11.7 #65	2.5 #23	7.8 #103	10.3 #58

NEV scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	6.3 #65	4.5 #128	10.8 #109	7.3 #38	6.8 #70	14.2 #54
SJSU allowed	1.4 #3	6.1 #50	7.6 #17	7.3 #108	6.4 #77	13.7 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.