Hawai'i @ Northern Illinois: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Kickoff forecast70°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

1-6 · Power #118

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Northern Illinois

0-6 · Power #134

projected

HAW 59%

41% NIU

Spread

HAW -4

open HAW -7.5

Total

47.5

model 47.5

Spread edge

NIU by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenHAW -7.5

CurrentHAW -4

Total45.5 → 47.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenHAW -7.5

3.5 → NIU

NowHAW -4

3.5 pts toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Now47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened HAW -7.5 · now HAW -4.5 · moved 3 toward NIUmodel HAW -0.5

model HAW -0.5

Openline modelNow

↗ Line toward model

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: NIU by 6.8 pts (open +7.5, now +4). In 2025–2026, with a 6+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 79.2% of the 125 games where the line moved (133 at that gap), but those sides covered 56.9% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 48% (169 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenHAW -7.5

CurrentHAW -4

Total45.5 → 47.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:16

Hawai'i at Northern Illinois: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:56 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved 3.5 points toward Northern Illinois since it opened. Hawai'i heads to Northern Illinois for a Saturday kickoff at 3:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Hawai'i sits 118th, Northern Illinois 134th. That’s about 6 points better than Northern Illinois on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Hawai'i has fallen from 90th to 118th, while Northern Illinois has slipped from 125th to 134th. Kickoff forecast at Huskie Stadium: 69 degrees, dry, wind 11 miles per hour, gusting to 16. The offenses are close: 123rd and 130th. Hawai'i has the better defense, 103rd to 132nd. Hawai'i plays at the faster pace. Hawai'i games have gone under 6 of 7 times. Northern Illinois is 1 and 5 against the spread as underdog. Our model projects Hawai'i 25, Northern Illinois 22, with a 59 percent win chance. Hawai'i is favored by 4, down from 7.5 at the open, through the key number 7, toward our model. The total opened at 45.5 and sits at 47.5. Our model makes it Hawai'i by 0.5, with a total near 47. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	HAW	NIU	Over	Under	HAW	NIU
BetMGMMGM	-4-108	+4-110	47.5-110	47.5-108	-190	+155
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-4.5+100	+4.5-120	47.5-105	47.5-115	-185	+161
BetRiversBetRivers	-3.5-113	+3.5-110	47.5-110	47.5-113	-182	+145
BetUSBetUS	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	47.5-105	47.5-115	-185	+159
BovadaBovada	-4-110	+4-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	-185	+160
DraftKingsDK	-4-108	+4-112	47.5-110	47.5-110	-198	+164
FanDuelFD	-4.5-102	+4.5-120	47.5-110	47.5-110	-176	+146
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-4.5+104	+4.5-116	47.5-103	47.5-114	-185	+161
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-4-110	+4-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	-196	+158

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	HAW	NIU	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	23.5-118	23.5-102
DraftKingsDK	-2.5-118	+2.5-102	23.5-115	23.5-105
FanDuelFD	-2.5-112	+2.5-108	23.5-122	23.5+100

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

HAW

NIU

Bets92% 8%

Money61% 39%

Money is 31 pts ahead of bets on NIU

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HAW as a 4-point road favorite at NIU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 3.6; 47.2 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH @ MTSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	42–28	W	O46.5
Close	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Close	FAU @ CLT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	38–16	W	O45
Close	KENN @ MOST 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	21–24	L	U52.5
Close	UL @ EMU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	31–34	L	O51.5
Close	ORST @ AFA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	0–28	L	U44.5
Close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-1	41–30	W	O48
Close	CMU @ AKR 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-7	22–28	L	O47.5
Close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-5	10–7	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW WLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	1-2
NIU LWLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	1-5

Venue/role: HAW away, as favorite; NIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UUUUU	1-6	14%	1-6
NIU OOUUO	3-3	50%	0-6

In 1292 games with totals 43.5–51.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
NIU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawai'i

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ UTEP	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs NDSU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	@ NEV	W34–13WO

Northern Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ UNLV	No meeting since 2023
Nov 7	@ SJSU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs NEV	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−7.0 →−13.3▼ 6.3#118

NIU−14.7 →−19.3▼ 4.6#134

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

HAW

Longer bar = better

NIU

#123

Offense

Even

#130

#103

Defense

◀ HAW better

#132

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #86

70 plays #30

Pace

◀ HAW faster

63 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #133	35.7 #132	Even
Yards / play	4.90 #124	6.38 #124	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.29 #135	Even
Success rate	39% #116	51% #137	HAW

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: HAW defense

	NIU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	14.2 #137	25.0 #76	HAW
Yards / play	4.90 #126	6.10 #113	Even
PPA / play	−0.06 #132	+0.19 #111	HAW
Success rate	38% #123	45% #111	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.6 #124	4.3 #131	6.9 #133	2.7 #128	6.1 #91	8.9 #124
NIU allowed	10.8 #137	12.0 #129	22.8 #136	8.2 #123	4.7 #34	12.8 #93

NIU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	2.8 #121	6.2 #108	9.0 #123	1.8 #135	3.3 #135	5.2 #138
HAW allowed	3.4 #39	8.7 #98	12.1 #73	4.6 #65	8.3 #115	12.9 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.