Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at UTEP · Conference game
HAW 59%41% UTEP
Spread
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Total
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model 50
Model line
HAW -3
HAW 59% to win
Pick this game
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Winner
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Hawai'i 59%
Projected HAW 26 – UTEP 24 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
HAW -3
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
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Model 50
How the model gets there (points from UTEP’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadUTEP rating edge−9.6+Home field+2.5+Travel+4.0=Model marginHAW by 3.1
TotalScoring ratings50.5+Wind 6 mph−0.4=Model total50.1
Signals
The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
No notable trends or market moves for this game.
Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% | |
| 1-9 10% | 1-9 10% | 6-4 60% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
HAW−7.0 →−13.3▼ 6.3#119
UTEP−15.9 →−22.0▼ 6.1#136
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9
Longer bar = better
#123
Offense
Even#133
#103
Defense
◀ HAW better#130
−0.3 #92
Turnovers
Even−0.3 #89
70 plays #30
Pace
◀ HAW faster59 plays #130
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| HAW off | UTEP def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 15.7 #133 | 37.3 #134 | Even |
| Yards / play | 4.90 #124 | 6.30 #121 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.01 #120 | +0.28 #132 | Even |
| Success rate | 39% #116 | 49% #133 | Even |
| UTEP off | HAW def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 15.1 #134 | 25.0 #76 | HAW |
| Yards / play | 4.88 #127 | 6.10 #113 | Even |
| PPA / play | −0.08 #136 | +0.19 #111 | HAW |
| Success rate | 34% #136 | 45% #111 | HAW |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
HAW scoring against the UTEP defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.6 #124 | 4.3 #131 | 6.9 #133 | 2.7 #128 | 6.1 #91 | 8.9 #124 | |
10.4 #135 | 6.0 #47 | 16.4 #114 | 13.1 #138 | 7.7 #99 | 20.9 #138 |
UTEP scoring against the HAW defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.0 #134 | 4.0 #134 | 6.0 #137 | 4.4 #108 | 4.7 #117 | 9.1 #122 | |
3.4 #39 | 8.7 #98 | 12.1 #73 | 4.6 #65 | 8.3 #115 | 12.9 #94 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
68° · 6 mph
Wind trims 0.4 pts off the total
Rest
HAW13d bye
UTEP6d
HAW +7 days
Tempo
Average 129 plays
slowavg 133fast
Altitude
HAW +3,806 ft
Model adds 4.0 pts for travel
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

