Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at UTEP · Conference game
Kickoff forecast68°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›
1-6 · Power #118
26
projected
@
1-6 · Power #136
24
projected
HAW 59%
41% UTEP
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 50
Model line
HAW -3
HAW 59% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Hawai'i 59%
Projected HAW 26 – UTEP 24 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
HAW -3
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 50
How the model gets there (points from UTEP’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadUTEP rating edge−9.6+Home field+2.5+Travel+4.0=Model marginHAW by 3.1
TotalScoring ratings50.5+Wind 6 mph−0.4=Model total50.1

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
HAW−7.0 →−13.3▼ 6.3#119
UTEP−15.9 →−22.0▼ 6.1#136
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

HAW
Longer bar = better
UTEP
#123
Offense
Even
#133
#103
Defense
◀ HAW better
#130
−0.3 #92
Turnovers
Even
−0.3 #89
70 plays #30
Pace
◀ HAW faster
59 plays #130
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When HAW has the ball
Even matchup
HAW offUTEP defEdge
Points / game 15.7 #133 37.3 #134 Even
Yards / play 4.90 #124 6.30 #121 Even
PPA / play +0.01 #120 +0.28 #132 Even
Success rate 39% #116 49% #133 Even
When UTEP has the ball
Advantage: HAW defense
UTEP offHAW defEdge
Points / game 15.1 #134 25.0 #76 HAW
Yards / play 4.88 #127 6.10 #113 Even
PPA / play −0.08 #136 +0.19 #111 HAW
Success rate 34% #136 45% #111 HAW

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
HAW scoring against the UTEP defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
HAW scored
2.6
#124
4.3
#131
6.9
#133
2.7
#128
6.1
#91
8.9
#124
UTEP allowed
10.4
#135
6.0
#47
16.4
#114
13.1
#138
7.7
#99
20.9
#138
UTEP scoring against the HAW defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
UTEP scored
2.0
#134
4.0
#134
6.0
#137
4.4
#108
4.7
#117
9.1
#122
HAW allowed
3.4
#39
8.7
#98
12.1
#73
4.6
#65
8.3
#115
12.9
#94

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
UTEP +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
68° · 6 mph
Wind trims 0.4 pts off the total
Rest
HAW13d bye
UTEP6d
HAW +7 days
Tempo
Average 129 plays
slowavg 133fast
Altitude
HAW +3,806 ft
Model adds 4.0 pts for travel

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.