Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Tulane · Conference game
Kickoff forecast69°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›
4-3 · Power #87
22
projected
@
3-3 · Power #86
24
projected
TLSA 42%
58% TULN
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 46
Model line
TULN -3
TULN 58% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Tulane 58%
Projected TLSA 22 – TULN 24 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
TULN -3
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 46
How the model gets there (points from TULN’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadTULN rating edge+0.3+Home field+2.5=Model marginTULN by 2.8
TotalScoring ratings46.6+Wind 6 mph−0.4=Model total46.2

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
TLSA−10.2 →−4.7▲ 5.5#87
TULN+2.5 →−4.3▼ 6.8#85
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TLSA
Longer bar = better
TULN
#88
Offense
◀ TLSA better
#111
#63
Defense
Even
#75
+1.6 #5
Turnovers
◀ TLSA better
+0.3 #53
66 plays #68
Pace
◀ TLSA faster
59 plays #128
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When TLSA has the ball
Even matchup
TLSA offTULN defEdge
Points / game 29.0 #72 21.7 #52 Even
Yards / play 5.48 #101 5.94 #104 Even
PPA / play +0.16 #65 +0.09 #70 Even
Success rate 39% #113 42% #75 TULN
When TULN has the ball
Advantage: TLSA defense
TULN offTLSA defEdge
Points / game 20.5 #116 22.4 #58 TLSA
Yards / play 5.61 #89 5.48 #74 Even
PPA / play +0.06 #102 +0.05 #52 TLSA
Success rate 33% #137 41% #67 TLSA

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
TLSA scoring against the TULN defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
TLSA scored
3.4
#114
9.7
#53
13.1
#92
8.0
#27
7.0
#65
15.0
#40
TULN allowed
4.5
#62
6.8
#64
11.3
#60
3.5
#38
6.8
#87
10.3
#58
TULN scoring against the TLSA defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
TULN scored
2.3
#129
8.3
#80
10.7
#111
2.8
#127
7.0
#65
9.8
#112
TLSA allowed
4.9
#72
5.7
#41
10.6
#49
6.3
#92
4.6
#30
10.9
#67

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
TULN +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
69° · 6 mph
Wind trims 0.4 pts off the total
Rest
TLSA14d bye
TULN7d
TLSA +7 days
Tempo
Slow 126 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.