South Florida @ East Carolina: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 10 · at East Carolina · Conference game

South Florida

5-2 · Power #76

projected

Fri 7:30 PM ET

East Carolina

3-4 · Power #93

projected

USF 51%

49% ECU

Spread

—

Total

—

model 48

Model line

USF -0.5

USF 51% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF WLLLW	3-4	43%	1-2	—
ECU WLWLW	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: USF away; ECU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OUUOU	3-4	43%	5-2
ECU UUUUO	2-5	29%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
ECU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

South Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	vs MEM	L31–34LO
Nov 21	@ FAU	W48–13WU
Nov 27	vs TULN	L10–45LU

East Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ CLT	W48–22LO
Nov 21	@ ARMY	W28–6WU
Nov 27	vs FAU	W42–3WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF+8.1 →−2.8▼ 10.9#76

ECU+2.1 →−5.4▼ 7.5#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

USF

Longer bar = better

ECU

#75

Offense

◀ USF better

#109

#46

Defense

Even

#37

+0.4 #46

Turnovers

◀ USF better

−0.6 #111

59 plays #127

Pace

ECU faster ▶

67 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	USF off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #86	26.3 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #100	4.87 #29	ECU
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	−0.02 #20	ECU
Success rate	47% #37	34% #5	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	ECU off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #92	15.1 #13	USF
Yards / play	5.22 #115	5.07 #47	USF
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.01 #37	USF
Success rate	39% #117	42% #87	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USF scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	5.9 #76	4.3 #131	10.1 #115	5.0 #95	11.4 #6	16.4 #27
ECU allowed	2.3 #11	9.7 #111	12.0 #70	5.6 #84	5.9 #61	11.4 #71

ECU scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	6.4 #62	8.7 #76	15.1 #69	4.6 #106	5.3 #113	9.9 #110
USF allowed	2.7 #17	5.7 #41	8.4 #28	1.9 #10	4.9 #37	6.7 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.