South Florida @ Florida Atlantic: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

South Florida

5-2 · Power #76

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Florida Atlantic

4-2 · Power #102

projected

USF 62%

38% FAU

Spread

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Total

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model 56.5

Model line

USF -4.5

USF 62% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF WLLLW	3-4	43%	1-2	—
FAU WWWWL	4-2	67%	3-0	—

Venue/role: USF away; FAU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF OUUOU	3-4	43%	5-2
FAU OUOOO	5-1	83%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
FAU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

South Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs TULN	L10–45LU

Florida Atlantic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ ECU	L3–42LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

USF 5–2 FAU USF leads · 7 games since 2002 · USF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Florida Atlantic 13 @ South Florida 48	USF -20.5	USF W
Nov 1 2024	South Florida 44 @ Florida Atlantic 21	USF -1.5	USF W
Oct 14 2023	Florida Atlantic 56 @ South Florida 14	USF -2.5	FAU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF+8.1 →−2.8▼ 10.9#76

FAU−10.2 →−9.0▲ 1.2#102

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USF

Longer bar = better

FAU

#75

Offense

FAU better ▶

#52

#46

Defense

◀ USF better

#114

+0.4 #46

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #52

59 plays #127

Pace

FAU faster ▶

76 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #86	31.5 #118	USF
Yards / play	5.48 #100	6.34 #123	USF
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.25 #125	USF
Success rate	47% #37	42% #88	USF

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #38	15.1 #13	USF
Yards / play	5.46 #102	5.07 #47	USF
PPA / play	+0.24 #31	+0.01 #37	Even
Success rate	47% #35	42% #87	FAU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USF scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	5.9 #76	4.3 #131	10.1 #115	5.0 #95	11.4 #6	16.4 #27
FAU allowed	8.0 #125	11.0 #123	19.0 #128	4.7 #67	7.8 #103	12.5 #87

FAU scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	12.2 #5	13.3 #13	25.5 #3	6.7 #54	2.8 #137	9.5 #119
USF allowed	2.7 #17	5.7 #41	8.4 #28	1.9 #10	4.9 #37	6.7 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.