Memphis @ Navy: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Navy · Conference game

Memphis

6-2 · Power #62

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Navy

2-4 · Power #89

projected

MEM 62%

38% NAVY

Spread

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Total

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model 56

Model line

MEM -4

MEM 62% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM LWWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	—
NAVY LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MEM away; NAVY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OOUUO	5-3	63%	6-2
NAVY OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NAVY	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Memphis

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs TEM	W45–21WO

Navy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ CLT	W51–17WO
Dec 12	@ ARMY	W17–16LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MEM 1–2 NAVY NAVY leads · 3 games since 2023 · NAVY has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 27 2025	Navy 28 @ Memphis 17	MEM -4	NAVY W
Sep 21 2024	Memphis 44 @ Navy 56	MEM -8.5	NAVY W
Sep 14 2023	Navy 24 @ Memphis 28	MEM -12.5	NAVY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+1.4 →+2.0▲ 0.6#61

NAVY−9.5 →−4.9▲ 4.6#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MEM

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#26

Offense

◀ MEM better

#46

#66

Defense

Even

#70

+0.5 #38

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

−1.0 #129

71 plays #22

Pace

◀ MEM faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	36.1 #28	25.8 #90	MEM
Yards / play	7.17 #8	5.35 #64	MEM
PPA / play	+0.19 #49	+0.13 #93	MEM
Success rate	49% #19	37% #32	Even

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #77	23.8 #70	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #40	5.85 #101	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.23 #35	+0.07 #57	NAVY
Success rate	48% #31	38% #36	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	5.1 #90	9.8 #52	14.9 #74	11.3 #7	9.1 #28	20.4 #7
NAVY allowed	4.7 #68	14.5 #137	19.2 #130	3.2 #33	3.5 #12	6.7 #10

NAVY scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	5.8 #79	8.3 #80	14.2 #81	5.5 #87	8.5 #41	14.0 #57
MEM allowed	2.9 #29	10.5 #122	13.4 #89	5.5 #81	4.9 #42	10.4 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.