Western Kentucky @ Liberty: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Liberty · Conference game

Western Kentucky

3-4 · Power #115

projected

Sat 1:00 PM ET

Liberty

6-1 · Power #67

projected

WKU 11%

89% LIB

Spread

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Total

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model 50

Model line

LIB -17.5

LIB 89% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWLWW	4-3	57%	2-3	—
LIB WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: WKU away; LIB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU UOUUU	3-4	43%	3-4
LIB OOUUU	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LIB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Western Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs KENN	W31–14LU

Liberty

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ MOST	L17–21LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WKU 0–3 LIB LIB leads · 3 games since 2020 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Western Kentucky 21 @ Liberty 38	LIB -1.5	LIB W
Oct 24 2023	Liberty 42 @ Western Kentucky 29	LIB -4	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−7.3 →−12.0▼ 4.7#114

LIB−8.8 →+1.1▲ 9.9#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WKU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#123

Offense

LIB better ▶

#42

#92

Defense

LIB better ▶

#13

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+0.7 #20

72 plays #11

Pace

◀ WKU faster

64 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	WKU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #114	14.0 #8	LIB
Yards / play	4.88 #129	4.77 #22	LIB
PPA / play	+0.01 #117	−0.04 #17	LIB
Success rate	36% #130	33% #4	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #54	30.6 #116	LIB
Yards / play	6.51 #35	6.03 #111	LIB
PPA / play	+0.19 #55	+0.12 #86	LIB
Success rate	49% #22	40% #53	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	3.9 #104	7.7 #92	11.6 #102	3.9 #116	5.9 #96	9.7 #115
LIB allowed	3.3 #34	6.3 #53	9.6 #40	2.0 #11	2.4 #4	4.4 #3

LIB scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	9.1 #26	5.7 #114	14.9 #74	6.3 #66	10.4 #10	16.7 #25
WKU allowed	6.3 #102	9.9 #115	16.1 #112	9.4 #134	5.0 #41	14.4 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.