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NCAAF · 2026 · Week 12

Delaware @ New Mexico State

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at New Mexico State · Conference game
Delaware
3-4 · Power #113
25
projected
@
New Mexico State
3-4 · Power #119
29
projected
DEL 39%
61% NMSU
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 53.5
Model line
NMSU -4
NMSU 61% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
New Mexico State 61%
Projected DEL 25 – NMSU 29 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
NMSU -4
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 53.5
How the model gets there (points from NMSU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadNMSU rating edge−2.0+Home field+2.5+Travel+3.4=Model marginNMSU by 3.9
TotalScoring ratings53.4=Model total53.4

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.
beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
DEL−14.3 →−11.4▲ 2.9#113
NMSU−18.2 →−13.2▲ 5.0#118
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11
DEL
Longer bar = better
NMSU
#71
Offense
◀ DEL better
#105
#107
Defense
NMSU better ▶
#57
+0.3 #59
Turnovers
◀ DEL better
−0.7 #120
66 plays #72
Pace
Even
65 plays #81
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When DEL has the ball
Even matchup
DEL offNMSU defEdge
Points / game 28.3 #75 25.4 #81 Even
Yards / play 5.77 #78 5.11 #50 NMSU
PPA / play +0.19 #54 +0.05 #50 Even
Success rate 43% #77 39% #48 NMSU
When NMSU has the ball
Even matchup
NMSU offDEL defEdge
Points / game 24.6 #93 28.4 #110 Even
Yards / play 5.72 #83 5.90 #103 Even
PPA / play −0.04 #128 +0.16 #107 DEL
Success rate 39% #115 44% #108 Even
Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
DEL scoring against the NMSU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
DEL scored
2.4
#125
11.3
#32
13.7
#86
6.0
#70
8.6
#38
14.6
#47
NMSU allowed
7.1
#116
5.7
#41
12.9
#80
7.3
#108
5.3
#45
12.6
#89
NMSU scoring against the DEL defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NMSU scored
2.7
#122
9.1
#70
11.9
#101
5.6
#85
7.1
#61
12.7
#82
DEL allowed
7.6
#122
9.0
#102
16.6
#115
8.4
#125
3.4
#11
11.9
#76
Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
NMSU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
DEL7d
NMSU7d
Even
Tempo
Average 131 plays
slowavg 133fast
Altitude
DEL +3,872 ft
Model adds 3.4 pts for travel

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Delaware← vs FIU · vs JXST →
New Mexico State← @ MOST · @ MTSU →
ESPN game page ↗
Other Week 12 gamesSame-conference games first
Other Week 12 gamesSame-conference games firstAll 66 ›
WKU @ LIB—MOST @ JXST—MTSU @ SHSU—FIU @ KENN—BALL @ OHIO—EMU @ WMU—M-OH @ KENT—AKR @ MASS—CMU @ BUFF—RICE @ TEM—
All 66 Week 12 games ›