Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Middle Tennessee

4-3 · Power #126

projected

Sat 2:00 PM ET

Sam Houston

1-6 · Power #124

projected

MTSU 42%

58% SHSU

Spread

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Total

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model 49.5

Model line

SHSU -2.5

SHSU 58% to win

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Winner

Market

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Spread

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no open

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Opening line not available

Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU WLLWW	5-2	71%	2-2	—
SHSU WLLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MTSU away; SHSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UUOOO	3-4	43%	4-3
SHSU OOUUO	3-4	43%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%
SHSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Middle Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs NMSU	W31–24

Sam Houston

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ FIU	L16–56LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MTSU 1–1 SHSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MTSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Sam Houston 17 @ Middle Tennessee 31	MTSU -6.5	MTSU W
Nov 25 2023	Middle Tennessee 20 @ Sam Houston 23	MTSU -3.5	SHSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−15.1 →−15.7▼ 0.6#126

SHSU−20.4 →−15.4▲ 5.0#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MTSU

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#84

Offense

◀ MTSU better

#123

#113

Defense

SHSU better ▶

#63

+0.7 #24

Turnovers

◀ MTSU better

+0.1 #68

58 plays #133

Pace

SHSU faster ▶

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	MTSU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #105	25.3 #80	SHSU
Yards / play	5.83 #72	5.18 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #67	+0.07 #62	Even
Success rate	41% #93	40% #54	SHSU

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #121	27.6 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #116	6.43 #127	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #126	+0.15 #102	MTSU
Success rate	37% #127	46% #120	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.7 #81	5.1 #120	10.9 #107	6.7 #52	5.7 #101	12.4 #86
SHSU allowed	4.0 #46	7.9 #80	11.9 #67	8.0 #119	5.4 #48	13.4 #101

SHSU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.4 #94	8.3 #82	12.7 #93	4.4 #108	3.0 #136	7.4 #133
MTSU allowed	4.4 #59	7.7 #75	12.1 #74	7.6 #112	7.9 #108	15.4 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.