Middle Tennessee @ Liberty: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Liberty · Conference game

Middle Tennessee

4-3 · Power #126

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Liberty

6-1 · Power #67

projected

MTSU 6%

94% LIB

Spread

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Total

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model 48.5

Model line

LIB -21.5

LIB 94% to win

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Winner

Market

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Spread

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Opening line not available

Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU WLLWW	5-2	71%	2-2	—
LIB WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MTSU away; LIB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UUOOO	3-4	43%	4-3
LIB OOUUU	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	4-5 44%
LIB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Middle Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ SHSU	W31–17WU
Nov 28	vs NMSU	W31–24

Liberty

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs WKU	W38–21WO
Nov 28	@ MOST	L17–21LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MTSU 0–3 LIB LIB leads · 3 games since 2021 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Liberty 37 @ Middle Tennessee 17	LIB -12.5	LIB W
Oct 17 2023	Middle Tennessee 35 @ Liberty 42	LIB -16	MTSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−15.1 →−15.7▼ 0.6#126

LIB−8.8 →+1.1▲ 9.9#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MTSU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#84

Offense

LIB better ▶

#42

#113

Defense

LIB better ▶

#13

+0.7 #24

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #20

58 plays #133

Pace

LIB faster ▶

64 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	MTSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #105	14.0 #8	LIB
Yards / play	5.83 #72	4.77 #22	LIB
PPA / play	+0.15 #67	−0.04 #17	LIB
Success rate	41% #93	33% #4	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #54	27.6 #103	LIB
Yards / play	6.51 #35	6.43 #127	LIB
PPA / play	+0.19 #55	+0.15 #102	LIB
Success rate	49% #22	46% #120	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.7 #81	5.1 #120	10.9 #107	6.7 #52	5.7 #101	12.4 #86
LIB allowed	3.3 #34	6.3 #53	9.6 #40	2.0 #11	2.4 #4	4.4 #3

LIB scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	9.1 #26	5.7 #114	14.9 #74	6.3 #66	10.4 #10	16.7 #25
MTSU allowed	4.4 #59	7.7 #75	12.1 #74	7.6 #112	7.9 #108	15.4 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.