Fresno State @ Texas State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Texas State · Conference game

Fresno State

4-3 · Power #80

projected

Sat 4:00 PM ET

Texas State

3-3 · Power #58

projected

FRES 23%

77% TXST

Spread

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Total

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model 59.5

Model line

TXST -10.5

TXST 77% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WWWWL	5-2	71%	2-2	—
TXST LWWLW	3-3	50%	3-1	—

Venue/role: FRES away; TXST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES UOUOO	4-3	57%	4-3
TXST UOOOO	5-1	83%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
TXST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Fresno State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs CSU	L21–49LO

Texas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs WSU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.0 →−3.3▲ 0.7#81

TXST−1.3 →+2.7▲ 4.0#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FRES

Longer bar = better

TXST

#86

Offense

TXST better ▶

#66

Defense

◀ FRES better

#110

+1.1 #8

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

−0.8 #126

61 plays #120

Pace

TXST faster ▶

78 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #79	32.2 #122	FRES
Yards / play	5.76 #80	5.75 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	+0.17 #110	FRES
Success rate	41% #96	45% #116	Even

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #9	20.9 #42	TXST
Yards / play	7.24 #6	5.78 #94	TXST
PPA / play	+0.34 #7	+0.04 #47	TXST
Success rate	52% #5	42% #79	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	2.3 #131	10.3 #46	12.6 #96	6.4 #60	8.6 #38	15.0 #40
TXST allowed	6.3 #105	9.8 #114	16.2 #113	9.7 #135	6.3 #72	16.0 #126

TXST scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	13.3 #1	12.7 #18	26.0 #2	5.7 #81	8.3 #45	14.0 #56
FRES allowed	6.0 #100	7.9 #80	13.9 #96	1.1 #3	5.9 #61	7.0 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.