Utah State @ San Diego State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 9:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Utah State

2-4 · Power #95

projected

Sat 9:30 PM ET

San Diego State

3-4 · Power #108

projected

USU 52%

48% SDSU

Spread

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Total

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model 45

Model line

USU -0.5

USU 52% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	—
SDSU LLWLW	2-5	29%	2-2	—

Venue/role: USU away; SDSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
SDSU UOOOO	5-2	71%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
SDSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Utah State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ ORST	No meeting since 2023

San Diego State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ BOIS	W17–7WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USU 2–0 SDSU USU leads · 2 games since 2023 · USU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	San Diego State 20 @ Utah State 41	USU -4.5	USU W
Nov 4 2023	Utah State 32 @ San Diego State 24	USU -2	USU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.5 →−6.9▼ 0.4#95

SDSU−1.2 →−10.9▼ 9.7#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

USU

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#131

Offense

Even

#126

#56

Defense

◀ USU better

#109

−0.8 #124

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

−0.3 #90

62 plays #112

Pace

Even

61 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: SDSU defense

	USU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #136	33.3 #128	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #122	5.70 #92	SDSU
PPA / play	−0.07 #135	+0.12 #88	SDSU
Success rate	35% #131	47% #127	Even

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: USU defense

	SDSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #103	23.5 #65	USU
Yards / play	4.81 #133	5.13 #52	USU
PPA / play	−0.05 #131	+0.06 #54	USU
Success rate	34% #135	39% #51	USU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.3 #129	3.8 #137	6.2 #135	4.7 #105	3.7 #131	8.3 #130
SDSU allowed	6.7 #110	8.6 #94	15.3 #106	8.4 #125	9.6 #128	18.0 #131

SDSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.3 #117	5.0 #122	8.3 #126	7.9 #29	7.1 #62	15.0 #40
USU allowed	8.2 #128	9.5 #109	17.7 #122	2.2 #13	3.7 #15	5.8 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.