San Diego State @ Boise State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 9:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Boise State · Conference game

San Diego State

3-4 · Power #108

projected

Sat 9:30 PM ET

Boise State

5-1 · Power #37

projected

SDSU 3%

97% BOIS

Spread

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Total

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model 52.5

Model line

BOIS -25.5

BOIS 97% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU LLWLW	2-5	29%	0-3	—
BOIS WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—

Venue/role: SDSU away; BOIS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU UOOOO	5-2	71%	3-4
BOIS OOUOO	5-1	83%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
BOIS	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San Diego State

No more games this season.

Boise State

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

SDSU 1–2 BOIS BOIS leads · 3 games since 2023 · SDSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Boise State 7 @ San Diego State 17	SDSU -2.5	SDSU W
Nov 1 2024	San Diego State 24 @ Boise State 56	BOIS -24.5	BOIS W
Sep 22 2023	Boise State 34 @ San Diego State 31	BOIS -5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−1.2 →−10.9▼ 9.7#110

BOIS+2.1 →+8.6▲ 6.5#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SDSU

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#126

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#28

#109

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#71

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

+0.5 #37

61 plays #121

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

71 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: BOIS defense

	SDSU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #103	22.3 #57	BOIS
Yards / play	4.81 #133	6.80 #134	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #131	+0.07 #60	BOIS
Success rate	34% #135	37% #31	BOIS

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #37	33.3 #128	BOIS
Yards / play	6.36 #41	5.70 #92	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.33 #11	+0.12 #88	BOIS
Success rate	49% #21	47% #127	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.3 #117	5.0 #122	8.3 #126	7.9 #28	7.1 #61	15.0 #40
BOIS allowed	4.5 #62	8.5 #91	13.0 #81	2.8 #28	6.5 #81	9.3 #41

BOIS scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	9.0 #28	11.5 #27	20.5 #23	6.7 #54	7.8 #53	14.5 #49
SDSU allowed	6.7 #110	8.6 #94	15.3 #106	8.4 #125	9.6 #128	18.0 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.