Colorado State @ Fresno State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Colorado State

2-4 · Power #110

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Fresno State

4-3 · Power #80

projected

CSU 21%

79% FRES

Spread

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Total

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model 57.5

Model line

FRES -11.5

FRES 79% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—
FRES WWWWL	5-2	71%	3-0	—

Venue/role: CSU away; FRES home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OOOOO	6-0	100%	2-4
FRES UOUOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	8-2 80%
FRES	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Colorado State

No more games this season.

Fresno State

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CSU 1–1 FRES Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · CSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 10 2025	Fresno State 21 @ Colorado State 49	FRES -5.5	CSU W
Nov 23 2024	Colorado State 22 @ Fresno State 28	FRES -3.5	FRES W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−10.5 →−11.0▼ 0.5#111

FRES−4.0 →−3.3▲ 0.7#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CSU

Longer bar = better

FRES

#31

Offense

◀ CSU better

#86

#138

Defense

FRES better ▶

#66

+1.6 #4

Turnovers

Even

+1.1 #8

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ CSU faster

61 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #30	20.9 #43	Even
Yards / play	6.57 #26	5.78 #94	CSU
PPA / play	+0.28 #19	+0.04 #47	CSU
Success rate	45% #50	42% #79	CSU

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #80	43.2 #138	FRES
Yards / play	5.76 #81	7.89 #138	FRES
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	+0.35 #138	FRES
Success rate	41% #96	55% #138	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	8.7 #30	12.2 #23	20.8 #21	6.0 #71	8.8 #34	14.8 #46
FRES allowed	6.0 #100	7.9 #78	13.9 #96	1.1 #3	5.9 #61	7.0 #15

FRES scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	2.3 #131	10.3 #47	12.6 #96	6.4 #61	8.6 #38	15.0 #40
CSU allowed	14.5 #138	14.3 #136	28.8 #138	8.2 #123	6.2 #67	14.3 #115

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.