SMU @ Notre Dame: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Notre Dame

SMU

5-1 · Power #35

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Notre Dame

6-1 · Power #1

projected

SMU 9%

91% ND

Spread

ND -17.5

Total

56.5

model 56

Spread edge

ND by 5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentND -17.5

Total56.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowND -17.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now56.5

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 50% (151 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentND -17.5

Total56.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 17.5-point home favorite against SMU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.5 against an average line of 18; 60.5 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs KSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	51–47	L	O52.5
Very close	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Close	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5
Close	TEX vs KU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	40–14	W	U61
Close	MIA vs NCSU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	41–7	W	U54.5
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Close	UGA vs AUB 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-19.5	24–27	L	O50.5
Close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	34–0	W	U51.5
Close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Close	MIA vs DUKE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-21	53–31	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU WLLLP	1-3-2	25%	0-1-1	0-1
ND LWLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	4-3

Venue/role: SMU away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU OOUUU	2-4	33%	5-1
ND UOOOO	5-2	71%	6-1

In 1300 games with totals 52.5–60.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	8-2 80%	4-4-2 50%	4-6 40%
ND	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SMU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ STAN	W34–10WU

Notre Dame

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ SYR	W70–7WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+9.9 →+8.8▼ 1.1#35

ND+24.9 →+26.2▲ 1.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SMU

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

ND better ▶

#13

#44

Defense

ND better ▶

−0.5 #104

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+2.0 #2

69 plays #44

Pace

Even

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	SMU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #47	13.4 #5	ND
Yards / play	6.84 #13	4.30 #6	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #43	−0.08 #9	ND
Success rate	49% #20	35% #13	Even

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	41.1 #6	21.3 #47	ND
Yards / play	6.52 #33	4.93 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #5	+0.07 #58	ND
Success rate	51% #9	38% #37	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	6.2 #71	13.2 #14	19.3 #28	5.0 #95	8.3 #45	13.3 #67
ND allowed	2.4 #14	5.4 #34	7.9 #20	2.7 #26	2.9 #6	5.6 #5

ND scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	11.3 #9	13.7 #11	25.0 #6	6.6 #58	9.6 #21	16.1 #31
SMU allowed	6.8 #111	2.2 #3	9.0 #33	4.0 #48	8.3 #117	12.3 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.