UNLV @ San José State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at San José State · Conference game

UNLV

4-3 · Power #84

projected

Sat 7:00 PM ET

San José State

4-3 · Power #111

projected

UNLV 65%

35% SJSU

Spread

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Total

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model 50

Model line

UNLV -5.5

UNLV 65% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV LWWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	—
SJSU LLWLW	4-3	57%	0-3	—

Venue/role: UNLV away; SJSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV UUOUO	2-5	29%	4-3
SJSU UUUUU	1-6	14%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
SJSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UNLV

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs NEV	W42–17WO

San José State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs NDSU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNLV 1–1 SJSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · UNLV has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2024	UNLV 27 @ San José State 16	UNLV -7.5	UNLV W
Nov 25 2023	San José State 37 @ UNLV 31	UNLV -1	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−0.6 →−4.1▼ 3.5#84

SJSU−10.3 →−10.9▼ 0.6#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UNLV

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#101

Offense

Even

#94

#71

Defense

Even

#67

0.0 #77

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #70

66 plays #69

Pace

Even

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	UNLV off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #98	21.7 #53	SJSU
Yards / play	5.59 #90	5.38 #67	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #94	+0.07 #59	SJSU
Success rate	38% #122	42% #89	SJSU

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	SJSU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #110	23.7 #69	UNLV
Yards / play	5.77 #80	5.68 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	+0.07 #64	Even
Success rate	40% #104	40% #59	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	4.0 #98	9.3 #63	13.3 #91	5.3 #90	5.6 #107	10.9 #97
SJSU allowed	1.4 #3	6.1 #50	7.6 #17	7.3 #108	6.4 #77	13.7 #108

SJSU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	1.4 #136	6.3 #107	7.7 #129	5.7 #81	8.0 #49	13.7 #63
UNLV allowed	4.3 #56	5.3 #31	9.6 #41	7.4 #110	6.7 #85	14.1 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.