Northern Illinois @ North Dakota State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at North Dakota State · Conference game

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Northern Illinois

0-6 · Power #134

projected

Sat 4:00 PM ET

North Dakota State

6-1 · Power #74

projected

NIU 6%

94% NDSU

Spread

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Total

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model 46.5

Model line

NDSU -22

NDSU 94% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWLLL	1-5	17%	1-3	—
NDSU WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: NIU away; NDSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OOUUO	3-3	50%	0-6
NDSU OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
NDSUlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northern Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs UTEP	No meeting since 2023

North Dakota State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ SJSU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−14.7 →−19.3▼ 4.6#134

NDSU−11.9 →−1.9▲ 10.0#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NIU

Longer bar = better

NDSU

#130

Offense

NDSU better ▶

#80

#132

Defense

NDSU better ▶

−0.2 #86

Turnovers

NDSU better ▶

+1.1 #9

63 plays #107

Pace

NDSU faster ▶

65 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	NIU off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.2 #137	11.3 #2	NDSU
Yards / play	4.90 #126	4.26 #4	NDSU
PPA / play	−0.06 #132	−0.15 #3	NDSU
Success rate	38% #123	36% #23	NDSU

When NDSU has the ball

Advantage: NDSU offense

	NDSU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #70	35.7 #132	NDSU
Yards / play	5.56 #92	6.38 #124	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	+0.29 #135	NDSU
Success rate	42% #85	51% #137	NDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the NDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	2.8 #121	6.2 #108	9.0 #123	1.8 #135	3.3 #135	5.2 #138
NDSU allowed	2.0 #8	3.9 #17	5.9 #6	1.3 #5	4.1 #22	5.4 #4

NDSU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NDSU scored	6.4 #62	12.6 #19	19.0 #33	6.6 #58	3.9 #125	10.4 #105
NIU allowed	10.8 #137	12.0 #129	22.8 #136	8.2 #123	4.7 #32	12.8 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.