North Dakota State @ Hawai'i: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

North Dakota State

6-1 · Power #74

projected

Sat 11:59 PM ET

Hawai'i

1-6 · Power #118

projected

NDSU 71%

29% HAW

Spread

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Total

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model 46

Model line

NDSU -7.5

NDSU 71% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NDSU WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
HAW WLLWW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: NDSU away; HAW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NDSU OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
HAW UUUUU	1-6	14%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDSUlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
HAW	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Dakota State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs NIU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 27	@ SJSU	No meeting since 2023

Hawai'i

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ NEV	W34–13WO
Nov 28	vs SAC	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NDSU−11.9 →−1.9▲ 10.0#74

HAW−7.0 →−13.3▼ 6.3#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NDSU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#80

Offense

◀ NDSU better

#123

Defense

◀ NDSU better

#103

+1.1 #9

Turnovers

◀ NDSU better

−0.3 #92

65 plays #80

Pace

HAW faster ▶

70 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NDSU has the ball

Advantage: NDSU offense

	NDSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #70	25.0 #77	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #92	6.10 #113	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	+0.19 #111	NDSU
Success rate	42% #85	45% #111	NDSU

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	HAW off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #133	11.3 #2	NDSU
Yards / play	4.90 #124	4.26 #4	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	−0.15 #3	NDSU
Success rate	39% #116	36% #23	NDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NDSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NDSU scored	6.4 #62	12.6 #19	19.0 #33	6.6 #58	3.9 #125	10.4 #105
HAW allowed	3.4 #39	8.7 #98	12.1 #74	4.6 #66	8.3 #115	12.9 #94

HAW scoring against the NDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	2.6 #124	4.3 #131	6.9 #133	2.7 #128	6.1 #92	8.9 #124
NDSU allowed	2.0 #8	3.9 #17	5.9 #6	1.3 #5	4.1 #22	5.4 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.