UTEP @ North Dakota State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at North Dakota State · Conference game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

UTEP

1-6 · Power #136

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

North Dakota State

6-1 · Power #74

projected

UTEP 4%

96% NDSU

Spread

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Total

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model 47.5

Model line

NDSU -25.5

NDSU 96% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LLLLL	1-6	14%	0-3	—
NDSU WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: UTEP away; NDSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP OUOUU	3-4	43%	1-6
NDSU OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	6-4 60%
NDSUlast 8	6-2 75%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UTEP

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs HAW	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs WYO	No meeting since 2023
Nov 20	@ AFA	No meeting since 2023

North Dakota State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ HAW	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs NIU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 27	@ SJSU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−15.9 →−22.0▼ 6.1#136

NDSU−11.9 →−1.9▲ 10.0#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UTEP

Longer bar = better

NDSU

#133

Offense

NDSU better ▶

#80

#130

Defense

NDSU better ▶

−0.3 #89

Turnovers

NDSU better ▶

+1.1 #9

59 plays #130

Pace

NDSU faster ▶

65 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: NDSU defense

	UTEP off	NDSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.1 #134	11.3 #2	NDSU
Yards / play	4.88 #127	4.26 #4	NDSU
PPA / play	−0.08 #136	−0.15 #3	NDSU
Success rate	34% #136	36% #23	NDSU

When NDSU has the ball

Advantage: NDSU offense

	NDSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #71	37.3 #134	NDSU
Yards / play	5.56 #92	6.30 #121	NDSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	+0.28 #132	NDSU
Success rate	42% #85	49% #133	NDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the NDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	2.0 #134	4.0 #134	6.0 #137	4.4 #108	4.7 #117	9.1 #122
NDSU allowed	2.0 #8	3.9 #18	5.9 #6	1.3 #5	4.1 #23	5.4 #4

NDSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NDSU scored	6.4 #62	12.6 #19	19.0 #33	6.6 #59	3.9 #125	10.4 #105
UTEP allowed	10.4 #135	6.0 #47	16.4 #114	13.1 #138	7.7 #99	20.9 #138

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.