UConn @ Air Force: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Air Force

Kickoff forecast62°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

UConn

3-3 · Power #93

projected

Sat 3:00 PM ET

Air Force

5-1 · Power #90

projected

CONN 28%

72% AFA

Spread

—

Total

—

model 56.5

Model line

AFA -8

AFA 72% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN LWLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—
AFA LLWWW	4-2	67%	3-1	—

Venue/role: CONN away; AFA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN UOUOU	3-3	50%	3-3
AFA OOUUO	3-3	50%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
AFA	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UConn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs UNC	W27–14WU
Nov 14	vs JMU	L6–44LO
Nov 21	vs ODU	No meeting since 2023

Air Force

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ ARMY	L17–20LU
Nov 14	vs SJSU	W26–16WU
Nov 20	vs UTEP	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CONN 1–0 AFA CONN leads · 1 game since 2023 · CONN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Air Force 16 @ UConn 26	CONN -7.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−4.3 →−5.3▼ 1.0#92

AFA−15.2 →−5.2▲ 10.0#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CONN

Longer bar = better

AFA

#36

Offense

◀ CONN better

#52

#85

Defense

AFA better ▶

#49

0.0 #71

Turnovers

AFA better ▶

+0.5 #35

66 plays #74

Pace

AFA faster ▶

72 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #29	19.7 #38	Even
Yards / play	6.82 #16	5.46 #72	CONN
PPA / play	+0.21 #44	+0.04 #44	Even
Success rate	44% #56	38% #42	Even

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #62	25.2 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #88	5.63 #88	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #33	+0.09 #71	AFA
Success rate	49% #23	44% #100	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	12.8 #2	7.3 #95	20.2 #25	8.0 #27	6.3 #85	14.3 #52
AFA allowed	2.8 #19	8.0 #80	10.8 #53	4.5 #63	3.3 #10	7.8 #20

AFA scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.3 #116	10.7 #40	14.0 #83	5.2 #92	10.2 #12	15.3 #38
CONN allowed	5.0 #74	8.5 #90	13.5 #92	6.3 #93	4.0 #18	10.3 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.